Seize the big cycle! Let’s talk about the currencies worth holding until the big bull market

小马pro · 2023-07-26T02:29:54.000Z

The market fluctuations were very small yesterday. Although it did not break a new low, the rebound was very weak. The short-term weakness has not ended yet, and there are still potential risks. We are not in a hurry to buy the bottom for the time being. The Federal Reserve meeting late tonight will give us guidance on the next step of the market. , wait until tonight, and then make the next deployment Don’t expect too much from the location here, and the same goes for the cottage. Shanzhai began to fall back over the weekend and is on the way to fall back now. We have to wait until the market stabilizes. In terms of the external environment this week, A-shares bottomed out yesterday and US stocks have not yet peaked. The overall external environment is stable, which does not constitute a condition for a decline in the currency circle. There is no bad news within the currency circle. Although the market is weak, you can Whether the market outlook will plummet is unclear for the time being, so I’ll just take it one step at a time.

Yesterday, the market fluctuated very little. Although it did not break a new low, the rebound was very weak. The short-term weakness has not ended yet and there are still potential risks. Don't rush to buy the bottom for the time being. The Fed meeting late tonight will give us guidance on the next move of the market. After tonight, we will make the next deployment.
Don't expect too much here for now, and the same goes for Shanzhai. Shanzhai started to fall back over the weekend and is still on the way down. Everything will have to wait until the big cake stabilizes.
As for the external environment this week, A-shares bottomed out and rebounded yesterday, and the U.S. stock market has not yet shown any signs of reaching its peak. The overall external environment is stable, which does not constitute the conditions for the decline of the cryptocurrency market. There is no bad news within the cryptocurrency market. Although the market is weak, you cannot see whether there will be a big drop in the future, so we should take it one step at a time.
The support below the big cake is around 2.84w. If it continues to fall back to this area in the short term, consider slowly intervening in spot trading. It is actually hard to say what the form will be when it comes down to 3.18w. If it really stabilizes at 2.8w and exchanges time for space, then it is actually very reasonable.
As for the possibility that the price will fall below 2.48w in the future, I think it is not reasonable for the time being. I think it is a large box consolidation and shock above 2.48w, but it is hard to say the lowest point at the moment.
Yesterday’s rebound of ETH was not ideal. A weak rebound can easily be counterattacked by the bears. If it drops again tonight, it may test the S1800 mark. If it falls below this mark in the second half of the week, it is expected to drop to around S1750. This position will become a new support. If this support is not broken, the overall downward space is within a controllable range, and it will not be difficult to go back in the future.
In addition, there is only one week left before the LTC halving, but the market has been seriously lacking in liquidity recently and has basically been trading sideways. Therefore, even if Litecoin moves independently, it will at most rebound to 100 or the previous high. The previous DASH production reduction is the best example. We should still put our hopes on the BTC halving next year. Once the leader moves, the whole market will take off.
Hoard coins and get rich!
Most people in the cryptocurrency circle want to get rich quickly, but ignore the tremendous power of getting rich slowly. The pursuit of getting rich quickly also makes these people become the leeks that are harvested.
For most ordinary people, grasping the big cycle is the real secret to making money. Planning in a bear market and harvesting in a bull market will give people a great sense of accomplishment.
This article shares the currencies that I personally believe can be held long-term until the next bull market.
These coins are all on my hoarding list, and I only buy and never sell them before the bull market bubble.
According to a rough data survey by Xiong Ge, at the peak of the last bull market, the total market value of cryptocurrencies was close to 2.9 trillion, and the total market value of the top 100 currencies accounted for about 95% of the total market value, or 2.75 trillion.
Among the top 100 currencies, excluding the top 20 by market capitalization (accounting for about 90% of the market capitalization), the remaining 21-100 currencies account for approximately 2.75*0.1=275 billion.
The average market value is approximately 2750/80=3.4 billion.
The market value of the top 50 currencies is over 4 billion, and the market value of the 100th one is close to 1 billion.
Based on a simple analysis of past Bitcoin price patterns, it is highly likely that Bitcoin will break 100,000 in the next bull market. At this time, the total market value of the crypto market will be no less than 4.25 trillion. The top 100 currencies will start at around 1.5 billion, and the top 50 currencies will have a market value of over 6 billion.
If the price of Bitcoin exceeds 150,000, the market value of the 100th largest company will be approximately 2.25 billion, and the market value of the 50th largest company will be approximately 9 billion.
Taking this as a reference, we can roughly judge the return rate of the coins currently chosen to be held for a long time in the bull market based on the token unlocking situation.
*Configuration principles for long-term holdings*
1. Diversify the layout of key tracks and do not miss out on hot narratives.
2. Buy new rather than old, and allocate small amounts of a few old currencies with potential (except BTC and ETH)
3. The position of a single currency should not be too heavy to increase the fault tolerance rate.
4. Buy in batches when there is a big drop, and don’t use up all your bullets.
There are many narratives about the bull market, and coupled with the characteristics of capital flow within the market, each key track will perform well.
If you cannot bet on the best-performing track, diversifying your portfolio is the safest approach to avoid missing out on the bull market.
The following currencies are added to my long-term coin hoarding list after comprehensive consideration from the aspects of fundamentals, token economy, financing, market value, etc. The overall expected return of the portfolio is more than 15x the principal.
I believe that there are many investment currencies that can achieve 50x or 100x performance, which may make the overall return greater than 20x. It will take a bull market to verify this.
1. $BTC
There is no need to say much about Bitcoin. The cryptocurrency community believes that the cryptocurrency community will only prosper if Bitcoin prospers.
The four-year halving cycle coupled with the shift in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, the entry of Grayscale’s asset management group with a huge amount of funds, and the restless Eastern forces all indicate that the next bull market is unstoppable.
When the bull market comes, BTC will be the first to blow the horn of skyrocketing. $BTC is the most stable configuration choice. Because of the small amount of funds, I control the BTC configuration at 20%-25% for higher overall returns.
2. $ETH
Ethereum is undoubtedly the most worthwhile long-term holding currency besides Bitcoin.
The emergence of Ethereum has overturned the landscape of cryptocurrency. It has the largest ecosystem and the most users, and has planned a complete route for the future. It has huge room for growth and strong consensus.
Ethereum's token has entered a deflationary mode, and the large amount of Ethereum pledged has greatly reduced the market's circulation. With the step-by-step implementation of the upgrade route and the support of the ecologically rich L2, the value of Ethereum is expected to rise in the long run.
The emergence of Ethereum has overturned the landscape of cryptocurrency. It has the largest ecosystem and the most users, and has planned a complete route for the future. It has huge room for growth and strong consensus.
Ethereum's token has entered a deflationary mode, and the large amount of Ethereum pledged has greatly reduced the market's circulation. With the step-by-step implementation of the upgrade route and the support of the ecologically rich L2, the value of Ethereum is expected to rise in the long run.
3.COMP
1. Project Introduction: Compound is a decentralized money market protocol built on the Ethereum blockchain. It is committed to allowing borrowers to obtain loans and lenders to provide loans by locking their crypto assets in the protocol. The interest rates paid and received by borrowers and lenders are determined by the supply and demand of each crypto asset. Mining each block generates an interest rate. Loans can be repaid at any time and locked assets can be withdrawn.
2. Section: DeFi; RWA;
3. Fundamentals: From the high point in May 2021 to July 25, 2023, it took nearly 805 days to settle, a drop of 97%;
4. Current coin price: 62.35 USD; market value ranking 86; circulating market value 484 million USD; circulation volume: 7.7615 million USD, circulation rate: 77.61%; unlocked: 86.54%; unlocked: 13.46%;
4.MAGIC
1. Project Introduction: Treasure DAO's vision is to build a decentralized ecosystem for Metaverse projects that combines NFT, games, and defi. It is currently built on Arbitrum (Ethereum L2). Each Metaverse has its own community, story, and game mechanics, but they are connected through SMAGIC, which is the economic bridge between these Metaverses. SMAGIC is also the only currency used for transactions on its NFT market. In this way, MAGIC acts as a reserve currency for the entire Metaverse network connected under the protection of TreasureDAO.
2. Section: Arbitrum ecosystem, GameFi wallet;
3. Fundamentals: From the high point in February 2023 to July 15, 2023, it took nearly 525 days to settle, with a drop of 96%:
The space is limited, so I will just write these four first, and I will update them later if I have the chance.