Compiled by: BlockBeats
Editor’s Note:
In the early morning of May 24, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission approved the 19b-4 forms of multiple Ethereum spot ETFs, including ETFs from BlackRock, Fidelity, and Grayscale. The approval of the Ethereum spot ETF can be seen as the second milestone in the crypto industry after the Bitcoin ETF, reflecting the growing influence of the crypto market on the traditional financial world. After Ethereum, which cryptocurrency will be the next to be approved for a spot ETF? There are different voices in the community.
DLnews reported that a CNBC host viewed SOL as the "next cryptocurrency ETF" and summarized the opinions of several crypto community experts on the possibility of SOL ETF passing. UNCHAINED host Laura Shin also organized a discussion on this issue. In addition to SOL, Dogecoin, Litecoin, and XRP were also within the scope of community speculation.
BlockBeats compiled the two reports as follows:
“You have to consider Solana could be next,” CNBC host Brian Kelly said on his show Wednesday.
“Technically, the Solana ETF has similar uncollateralized features to the ETH tool under review and should not raise reasonable objections,” Doura Labs CEO Michael Cahill said in an interview. “Given the activity of market makers, I think the listing rate of the Solana ETF will exceed 75% this year and exceed 95% next year.”
Polymarket, a prediction market closely watched by cryptocurrency investors, reported a 7% chance that the Solana spot ETF would be approved in 2024. The betting pool is also small, at just over $100,000. This suggests that the proposal is not attractive enough for speculators.
Nate Geraci, co-founder of the ETF Institute and president of the ETF Store, was equally pessimistic. At least not until the market sees Solana futures contracts. Bitcoin futures contracts were approved for trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, one of the world’s largest derivatives exchanges, long before the spot Bitcoin ETF was approved. The same is true for Ethereum. Geraci also said that Congress must approve a clear regulatory framework for digital assets in the United States before approving the Solana ETF.
Joe McCann, founder, CEO and CIO of Asymmetry, who calls himself Solana maxi, believes that Solana is the most likely candidate. "Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana may be the three giants of this cycle." Joe McCann said that given SOL's position in the market, it must be prepared. He pointed out that despite some regulatory uncertainties, Solana has attracted strong interest from the crypto community and the traditional financial sector. Many investors believe that Solana is a promising alternative, especially for those who missed the Ethereum boom.
However, not everyone agrees.
While Bloomberg Intelligence research analyst James Seyffart acknowledged that the “greatest demand” could be seen on SOL, he believes Dogecoin or Litecoin may be more likely to gain acceptance.
Noting that the SEC has only hinted at considering ETH a security, he tweeted: “Those lawsuits against COIN & Kraken et al say straight out ‘Solana is a security’ lol. That could easily make this a bumpy road.” (Solana was designated a security by the SEC in lawsuits against Coinbase, Kraken and Binance.US.)
Seyffart stressed the importance of a regulated futures market, a key consideration for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) when approving ETFs. “I don’t think Solana is coming anytime soon,” he said. “Dogecoin or Litecoin, probably sooner.” He explained that the SEC seeks a liquid and regulated futures market, a criterion that Dogecoin and Litecoin may meet before Solana.
The role of futures markets is crucial in this discussion. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) regulates futures markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which paved the way for their ETFs. Until similar markets emerge for Solana, its chances of approval remain uncertain. Seyffart wrote in a tweet, "Under the current regulatory framework, I don't think Solana will join an ETF for several years. Maybe later than 2026 at the earliest. But Congress could theoretically speed up this timeline."
Adam Cochran, a core member of the Synthetix team, also believes that LTC and DOGE will have an easier time passing because “the road is cleaner (easier)”.
Asgard founder Alex Kruger said both Solana and Dogecoin have potential depending on how their futures contracts develop, but admitted he “doesn’t have a strong view.”
Apart from this, the legal status of XRP also plays a role. Seyffart also mentioned that the outcome of the ongoing lawsuit against XRP could affect its chances. If XRP is not classified as a security, then it could pave the way for an ETF for it, provided there is a regulated market for it.
UNCHAINED reporter Laura Shin believes: “Both sides have valid arguments: LTC and DOGE have little regulatory baggage, but if you look at it without the regulatory drama, it ‘doesn’t make sense’. From a cryptocurrency usage/basics (dare I say ‘first principles’) perspective, SOL ‘makes sense’.”
References:
《 Is a Solana ETF next? Four industry experts weigh the odds》
《 After ETH, Which Crypto ETF Will Be Approved Next?》
