BTC spot Bitcoin ETF had a net inflow of 19 million US dollars yesterday, with net inflows for 9 consecutive days, and market sentiment has improved significantly. As for ETH ETF, the dust has basically settled. Although it has only passed 19b-4, there is no clear statement on S-1/S-3S, which means that the ETH spot ETF has no specific time for listing, because it still needs to pass S-1/S-3. It is expected to take another 1-2 months, but 19b-4 has been passed, which means that the ETH spot ETF will definitely pass, and listing is only a matter of time.
After ETH, which is most likely to become the third ETF concept coin?
Meme coin is less likely at the moment because the ETF requires the support of a consortium.
At present, only tokens that are recognized as non-securities by the SEC can become the subject of ETFs. Currently, BTC, ETH, BCH, LTC and DOT are recognized as non-securities.
Although it is recognized as a non-security, it does not necessarily mean that it can apply for an ETF, because sufficient consensus is required. This is related to the support of the consortium.
Tokens that have been sued by the SEC or appear on the indictment list are unlikely to be the subject of an ETF. There are currently 11 tokens on the SEC's indictment list, of which SOL and CHZ are the most likely. It should be noted that ETH has not been sued and does not appear on the indictment list.
The POS mechanism is not the reason for restricting the application of spot ETFs.
Many people mentioned Doge, but in fact, the possibility of Doge passing is much lower than SOL. Market operations are more suitable for Doge. At present, in addition to BTC and ETH, the possibility of the third token passing is lower. But in the long run, based on the consensus perspective, SOL has a chance. However, the premise is to get rid of the entanglement of the SEC, which is very difficult.
V tanzhangii
Even if Gary steps down, the lawsuit between the SEC and Coinbase will continue. The two key projects that the SEC is concerned about are SOL and CHZ. Although they have not yet been sued, they have been clearly mentioned in Coinbase's court documents. According to the SEC's practice, they may have already obtained a lot of evidence.
More importantly, Ripple and some media may have misled the public. It should be clear that Ripple did not win the SEC's lawsuit and still faces a huge fine. Ripple is currently preparing to appeal, and the lawsuit is not over yet. The SEC will definitely appeal Judge Torres' ruling that "exchange sales are not securities."
If SOL can win the SEC's lawsuit and prove that it is not a security, then it has a great chance to become the third token to pass the spot ETF. However, this path is not calculated on a yearly basis, so SOL is unlikely to become the third spot ETF to pass. Although BCH and LTC meet the conditions of being non-securities, the consensus is not enough.
In addition, Meme and platform coins have almost no chance. It is unlikely that someone mentioned Link. The SEC may not have paid attention to it yet, but for the SEC, certainty and the role of making a warning are the most important. So the SEC may pay attention to Solana after Ripple.
Judging from the market, the price of ETH fluctuates between 3400 and 3900, and both long and short contracts with high leverage are in trouble. Therefore, controlling greed is the key to survival in the contract market.
How will the market perform in the future?
The two hottest sectors at the moment are memes and Ethereum. In the meme sector, the most popular ones are undoubtedly PEOPLE and PEPE. If you want to chase the popularity, you can allocate some meme coins. Ethereum can be held for the long term.
As the weekend approaches, the market is likely to fluctuate and adjust. After the ETH ETF is approved, the short-term market crash is bearish, but the long-term outlook is bullish. Those who have passive stop loss on ETH can also buy 10% of ETH long-term at a suitable point, and the market is expected to break the previous high of 4800 in the future.
The currently recommended position is around 50%, and the recommended currencies to hold are: ETH, SOL, BNB, AR, CHR, FTM, and Matic.
If the market falls back in the future, it will be a great opportunity to get on board. I believe that many people will gradually realize this and start to enter the market. The operation of the market depends on the relationship between supply and demand. Many people may not believe that the Ethereum ETF will be approved before, and may have been out of the market long ago. But when they see the real approval news, they will definitely look for opportunities to enter the market again. Coupled with the intervention of institutions, I personally think that the room for Ethereum to fall is very limited.
Although this is short-term positive news, it is different from the last Bitcoin ETF news, because Bitcoin started trading as soon as the news came out. In general, now is the time to intervene boldly. Secondly, pay attention to the flow of funds, seize the rotation of sectors, and improve the utilization rate of funds. After the Bitcoin ETF news came out, Bitcoin rose from 40,000 to 74,000. The expected high point of Ethereum will be at least 5,000!