"Position data shows that the BTC and ETH markets are in a bear market, and the early stages of a bull market may still be far away"

From the data point of view, the current holdings of BTC that have not been moved for more than half a year have exceeded 14.518 million, accounting for 74.69% of the total circulation. At the same time, the number of investors who have held positions for more than a year is also increasing. Yesterday, it reached a record high of 69.196%, and today it dropped slightly to 69.195%. This shows that more investors are not interested in the current price and macro sentiment, reducing the chips involved in short-term turnover.

Historical data shows that as long as long-term holders continue to maintain the upward trend, the prices of BTC and ETH will not continue to fall, but the bull market has not yet begun. We are still in the bear market stage, and the gap between the bull market and the rise is large. Especially considering the current low liquidity problem, the possibility of the initial bull market is low.

In the past week, USDT’s market value was the only major stablecoin to rise, with a market value increase of $160 million. This means that European and Asian investors are still showing signs of increasing their investment, but the investment intensity is not very high.

However, USDC's market value has dropped by $425 million, more than 2.6 times the increase in USDT's market value, indicating that the main funds of American investors are leaving the market. The decline in the market value of the main stablecoins is not friendly. Although the existing funds are still enough to push BTC and ETH to historical highs, this ability has begun to be gradually squeezed.

Funds are no longer just waiting and watching, but are moving to markets with a greater probability of profit. This also means that there are fewer and fewer bull markets where there is money. Key points: The number of BTC held for more than half a year and the number of investors holding for more than a year have reached new highs, indicating that more investors are not interested in the current price and market sentiment, resulting in a decrease in short-term trading participation.

In addition, the market value of major stablecoins is declining, indicating that funds from U.S. investors are gradually leaving the market, which may increase price volatility.

On the whole, we are still in the bear market phase and the possibility of a bull market is low.