Big alert! This week, we are standing at the corner of history, watching the moment coming - the Federal Reserve will sound the drum of interest rate hike at 3 a.m. on July 27, 2023. At that time, we will be brought into a new economic situation. People have generally expected this 25 basis point interest rate hike, which makes people focus more on what will happen next.

When the harbinger of this economic storm sounded at 3 a.m., soon, half an hour later, Fed Chairman Powell will step onto the podium for the press conference. However, his words will not be as suspenseful as usual, because the market has already expected his possible words: emphasizing the overheating of the current economy and further judgment based on future data.

To get the full picture, let's look at the recent forecasts from Goldman Sachs economists. Their view is somewhat different, believing that this rate hike will be the final chapter of this economic cycle. After observing the existing data, Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle firmly believes that the upcoming rate hike will undoubtedly be 25 basis points, which may also be the finale of this round of rate hikes. And their forecast also gives us hope: the possibility of the United States falling into a recession is actually small, at least less than the market predicts. They expect rate cuts to begin in the second quarter of 2024 and gradually decrease by 25 basis points per quarter, and eventually stabilize at a range of 3-3.25%, which is higher than the FOMC's long-term forecast of 2.5%.

Then, Thursday will be a critical day for us. After experiencing a rate hike at 3 a.m., we will face another data test at 21:30 p.m. - that will be the release of the unemployment benefit data for the week, with the previous value of 22.8. In addition, important data such as the initial value of the second quarter GDP annual rate will also be announced. In short, Thursday's schedule is full and the key points are extremely important. We who participate in this economic drama must always remain vigilant.

That’s what we’re focusing on this week.

(Purely personal opinion, if you want to debate with me then you are right)

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