Since this round of bull market, $LTC has risen by a maximum of 127%. Since June this year, I have been shorting LTC on Twitter more than once. I have mentioned many reasons for shorting LTC and also written some articles about shorting LTC. Exchange rate strategy, because I believe that no matter from the perspective of underlying logic and historical laws, this is extremely simple and simple logic that most people can understand. Today I found a very interesting data indicator and would like to share it with you.

Open interest (open interest) is a commonly used data indicator that usually reflects the activity of the market. A high open interest means that investors of a certain market size are participating. Leverage and potential liquidation mean greater volatility, and often in the direction of less resistance. Today, let's analyze the historical data of open interest to see why LTC continues to fall.

LTC has a very interesting data indicator, which is the critical data of contract holdings of 500 million U. The three times in history when the holdings fell below 500 million U, there was a sharp decline. On November 10, 2021, it coincided with the six-month high of 289U. At this time, the contract position remained at 500 million U. Then, after the contract position fell below 500 million U on November 14, it plummeted in just 24 days. 48%.

The same event happened twice between February and June 2021: it reached a stage high of 247U on February 20. However, on that day, the open interest fell below 500 million U, and the price fell by 38% in the next eight days. On May 9, after the open interest fell below $500 million, the price reached a record high of 409U, and then retraced 71% in just 13 days.

Let’s take a look at this time. With the last hype window of the halving event, LTC’s holdings surged again from June 29 ($300 million) to July 2 ($615 million) until July 2. Prices reached a 14-month high before plummeting 20% ​​to 92U. Open interest remains above the $500 million mark, and once it falls below, the risk of value returning is looming.

The halving day is expected to be August 6th. A review of the historical price changes before and after the three halvings shows that without exception, new highs were reached before the halving. In any case, LTC at this time is not a good candidate for long trading. The target, the hype of halving the game at this time is a low profit and loss transaction.