7/22 BTC market analysis:

The share of stablecoins has shrunk, altcoins have generally risen, and the market has gone sideways. Is it rising or falling?

Hi, girls and boys, welcome to Uncle Cat Talking about Coins.

As of the time of writing, BTC is priced at around 29,900. After falling on the evening of the 22nd, the market has been fluctuating in a small range. The trading volume is still relatively low.

From last night to early morning, whales frequently moved, and altcoins generally rose, but Bitcoin and Ethereum were relatively stable, in a relatively stable mood. From some aspects, it can be seen that Bitcoin and Ethereum are currently in a stage where the top main players are in control, and capital will also fight each other. Half of the so-called whales dare not touch Bitcoin and Ethereum, and they are also afraid of being trapped in them. On the contrary, when the market does not move out of the trend, everyone consciously sets their sights on the altcoins. The current crypto market has a bit of a sense of dividing territories, which is interesting.

According to statistics, the market share of stablecoins is relatively small recently. It seems that many traders prefer to exchange their stablecoins for altcoins, which means they do not have much confidence in the interest of stablecoins. Overall, the current return rate of the crypto market has decreased a lot.

The most active altcoins are web3 and NFT concepts, thanks to the EU's proposal of web4. Whether the "primary school students" really want to study blockchain or try to save the NFT market, at least the goal has been achieved. However, the consequence of doing so is another wave of harvest.

The whale addresses with the most changes in the early morning are still DOGE. Various addresses are frequently transferring tokens. I sent you an address with more than 300 million tokens in the early morning, which is constantly splitting. In fact, the altcoin sector should support the Defi sector more recently. As the starter of the last bull market, their changes determine the direction of market funds to a certain extent.

From the news, the result of the interest rate hike will be announced on the 27th of next week. At present, various institutions believe that the interest rate hike this month may be a foregone conclusion. Although everyone has the same puzzled feeling as Uncle Cat, the economic situation obviously does not allow for another interest rate hike, but the Federal Reserve seems to be in a crazy situation. In fact, for the current economic situation in the United States, a soft landing is no problem. Raising interest rates is really unnecessary and not conducive to their election. Whether or not to raise interest rates will not have a big impact on the market.

Judging from the US dollar index, the Fed's actions this year have basically been to raise interest rates openly, and to loosen liquidity to technology companies and financial markets behind the scenes, so as to keep the US dollar within a certain established target. In the future election, it will be a competition between old Deng and Golden Retriever to see who is more hated by the public. Now that old Deng is old, he may have to be more ruthless if he wants to continue to be re-elected, whether it is policy or performance.

Looking at the recent financial markets, stocks, gold and futures have all performed well, while the crypto market is indeed too calm. In fact, this situation is quite normal, reflecting that traders and trading funds in the entire market are still scarce, and everyone would rather put their funds in the stock market futures with higher returns rather than the crypto market. At the same time, many traders believe that there are still certain hidden risks in the crypto market.

From a technical point of view, the market of Bitcoin has expanded the limit of the tightening Bollinger Band since it started to rise in June. The sideways fluctuations in the past twenty days are gradually tightening the Bollinger Band. Based on past experience, a breakthrough may be made at the technical level in the near future. On the Fibonacci index below, the two positions of 27000-27500 belong to a strong support below, and the supports are close to each other, which will form a very strong support point later. In the futures market expiring at the end of August, the bearish target is 27000 and the bullish target is 32000. If the quotation remains around 30000, the futures market may see a double kill.

Trend Direction:

Today is the weekend. In principle, we will not make direction judgments or transactions. Analyzing the recent situation, there is only one positive factor, the application review result of an ETF, but the sentiment of the ETF has been almost exhausted. There are many negative factors. Apart from the interest rate hike, the recent frequent cryptocurrency problems in the United States will cause the SEC to increase its supervision. Although it is a good thing in the long run, it is certain to suffer setbacks in the short term. Of course, there are other hidden situations that I will not go into detail one by one. The current point is in the middle of a shock range. It is more likely to rebound and then fall on the weekend.

Trading straregy:

Go short when the market is high. A more prudent approach is to go short at a high point and spend the weekend peacefully. Because the whales have been moving abnormally recently, the possibility of a weekend high point cannot be ruled out.

Spot:

It is indeed not a good time to open a spot position recently. The main market is sideways and the copycat whales are moving wildly. The market is in chaos. It is best not to open a position at this time. You can gather the target group and then slowly screen them. To do spot trading, you must know how to keep calm in order to get excellent returns!

#BTC