Digital asset management platform Blofin recently released a report focusing on the changing narrative of the cryptocurrency market and predicting the potential price trend of Bitcoin based on various factors. It mentioned that once the Bitcoin spot ETF is approved for listing in the United States, it will inevitably have a significant impact on the currency price. In the most optimistic case, Bitcoin will be expected to climb to US$49,400.
Blofin first emphasized the importance of Bitcoin as a "compliant asset" in the report. Unlike Ethereum, which still cannot completely rule out the possibility of constituting a "security", Bitcoin has been publicly recognized as a "commodity". The report believes that due to the low possibility of taking risks in terms of compliance, this will make Bitcoin the preferred asset for many investors.
In addition, the company also studied the distribution of liquidity in the cryptocurrency market and further explained how this will affect the price and market value of Bitcoin. Data shows that Bitcoin's market share dropped significantly during the peak season of competing coins, but thanks to the entry of institutional funds and the reinjection of liquidity, Bitcoin's market share has steadily recovered and reached nearly 50% in July this year.
Blofin summarizes the three major trends of Bitcoin market based on different scenarios and market factors:
Scenario 1: Market sentiment remains depressed
If investors are not optimistic about the prospects of cryptocurrencies and market sentiment continues to be depressed, the overall cryptocurrency market value will still be limited and remain between US$1.2 trillion and US$1.4 trillion.
In this case, Bitcoin's market share will not change much and is expected to remain at around 50%, which means that Bitcoin's market value will fluctuate between US$600 billion and US$700 billion, and the price of the currency will fluctuate between US$30,880 and US$36,026.
Scenario 2: Bitcoin spot ETF approved
Blofin said that if the first Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States is approved for listing and investors are encouraged, the overall cryptocurrency market value may rise to around $1.5 trillion to $1.6 trillion.
In this case, assuming that Bitcoin's market share remains unlimited, its market value is expected to stabilize between US$750 billion and US$800 billion, and Bitcoin is expected to reach a maximum of US$41,173. Even if the rebound is not strong enough, it will at least rise to above US$38,500.
In addition, if the Bitcoin spot ETF is successfully passed and successfully pushes the Bitcoin market share to 60%, Blofin expects that in the most optimistic scenario, the Bitcoin market value will reach US$960 billion and the Bitcoin price will soar to US$49,400; in a relatively conservative scenario, the Bitcoin market value will reach US$900 billion and the price will rise to US$46,300.
Scenario 3: Combining three positive factors: interest rate cut, Bitcoin spot ETF, and halving event
Blofin said that if the three major favorable expectations of interest rate cuts, approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs and halving events are combined, it is expected to stimulate the return of liquidity in the cryptocurrency market and drive a substantial recovery in the overall market value to US$1.7 trillion.
In this case, if the market share of Bitcoin remains unchanged, its market value will reach more than 850 billion US dollars, and the price of Bitcoin will rebound to more than 43,700 US dollars; if the market share of Bitcoin rises to 60%, the market value of Bitcoin will exceed 1.02 trillion US dollars, and the price of Bitcoin will rise to 52,500 US dollars.
by: Block Girl Mel