Radiant happily received an investment from Binance last night, but they didn't forget to continue building their ecosystem and promote eco-projects like @Radpiexyz_io by opening a Space.
Let's calculate the potential earnings from the Radpie dLP Rush, along with the profits from arbitrage using Binance's RDNT Loan.
In summary, this presents an opportunity for absolute returns of 10%-96% over approximately a month. However, it requires a good understanding of DeFi, so DYOR before proceeding. converted to annualized returns 120%-1152%.
The rights and benefits of participating in Radpie dLP Rush are as follows:
- 3% RDNT airdrop
- 45% allocation for RDNT
- 1st round FDV 5M, accounting for 10% of the total supply
- 2nd round FDV 10M, accounting for 10% of the total supply
The FDV of Pendle is 190M, and RDNT is 310M.
The comparable product on Pendle, Penpie$PNP, is 16M. Assuming a conservative FDV of $10M for RDP and an optimistic estimate of $20M.
Under the conservative assumption, the total earnings from Radpie dLP Rush would be:
3% 10 + (10-5) 10% 45% + (10-10) 10% * 45% = 525k
Under the optimistic assumption, the total earnings would be:
3% 20 + (20-5) 10% 45% + (20-10) 10% * 45% = 1.725M
The current ongoing first round of dlp rush provides an airdrop of 1.5% RDNT, half of the total airdrop. Assuming the raised dLP quantity is also half, the earnings from the first round would be half of the total, 263k/863k.
Currently, $800k dLP has been raised, resulting in earnings of 33% to 108%.
dLP rush has been ongoing for 12 out of 15 days. Assuming a final total raise of $1.2M, the earnings would be 22% to 72%.
After dLP rush, dLP will convert to mDLP, which can only be sold and exited through the secondary market, with a rate of 0.84, resulting in a 16% loss.
The earnings from dLP rush will also include the earnings from the same period of dLP. Currently, dlP ARP is 50%. According to Penpie's experience, Radpie is expected to officially launch about a month later, resulting in earnings of approximately 4%.
Combining all the conservative conditions, the earnings would be 22% - 16% + 4% = 10%, and under optimistic conditions, it would be 108% - 16% + 4% = 96%, with a timeframe of approximately one month.
Currently, using Binance's RDNT lending with an annual interest rate of 5% presents an earnings range of 9.5%-95.5%. If you prefer not to use lending, hedging using spot contracts is also an option.
On Arbitrum, dLP is an 80% RDNT / 20% ETH Balancer LP, which closely follows the RDNT price and has relatively low impermanent loss. On BSC, it's a 50% RDNT / 50% BNB Pancake LP, with relatively higher returns due to fewer participants in dLP rush.
Although this is only the first round of dLP rush, experience from Penpie suggests that subsequent rounds might have significantly different returns compared to the first round, and there's no guarantee of obtaining IDO allocation, resulting in potential loss of most of the earnings.
Risk warning, The following conditions may lead to lower-than-expected earnings:
1. More severe dLP de-peg compared to mPendle.
2.3dLP rush raises more funds than expected.
3. $RDP FDV is lower than expected.
4. If using Binance's lending, interest rates increase, etc.
Appendix:
After a year's lockup, #vlRDP holders may choose to use unlocked #dLP to uphold the mdLP peg in the secondary market as needed.