The final decision time for the bitcoin spot ETFs applied by financial institutions should be in August at the earliest, so there is really no direction for bitcoin this month. The current market is really like a blunt knife cutting meat, and those who play with the trend will be killed. So it is true that timing is more important than strength, and there is no need for temporary analysis, let alone operation.
It is obvious that 3.18w has already indicated a relatively large adjustment, and it is impossible to get better immediately. There should be a long time to continue to adjust. The good thing is that the Ethereum exchange rate has begun to pick up, and the market share of Bitcoin will also need to be adjusted in the future. Therefore, there is indeed an expectation of holding a small position for the better altcoins. For example, L2 has been relatively strong recently.
Because the mid-term market is still a little early, let's take a break for now. Because it has fallen below 2.97w, theoretically, the adjustment to 3.18w has not ended. Let's see where it ends up. Personally, I think the callback is an opportunity. The big support below is around 2.84w, but it may not reach that level.
This week, the US SEC will decide whether to approve the listing application of spot ETFs.
Although the market generally believes that this round of ETF applications will be approved sooner or later, the US SEC still has a lot to consider for Bitcoin spot ETFs, otherwise it would not have rejected them for the past 10 years.
Traditional financial giants entering the crypto market have to address issues such as compliance, supervision, fund custody, taxation, investor protection, etc. Judging from the current situation, US regulators are clearly not fully prepared.
Therefore, Brother Xiong believes that the first application will most likely not be approved for the time being and may be delayed, at the latest until early next year.
This is an emotional blow to long funds. After all, Bitcoin is now above $30,000, which is supported by the news of ETF. If it is not approved, short funds may counterattack.
Potential coins to watch recently
AGLD is worth paying attention to recently. The L2 concept has begun to rise, $OP and $ARB have performed strongly, and $AGLD recently announced that it will develop L2. Considering the hot narrative, extremely low valuation, well-known market makers entering the market, and technical breakthroughs, $AGLD deserves continued attention.
Narrative Hot: The $AGLD community will develop Loot Chain (based on EVM's L2) to provide a high-performance, low-cost operating environment for Lootverse games. Loot Chain is built using OP Stack through Caldera and uses $AGLD as a Gas token. Whether the market is hyping Base L2 or Cancun upgrades, it is good for $AGLD.
Extremely low valuation: The outdated AXS game sidechain Ronin Chain still has a circulating market value of $165 million and FDV of $700 million. However, $AGLD has a circulating market value of only $60 million after listing on Binance, leaving it with huge room for growth. Once hot money flows in to drive speculation, $AGLD is expected to easily increase by more than 50% in a single day.
Market makers enter the market: DWF Labs has committed to purchasing more than one million USD of $AGLD tokens and supporting the community through its partners. The participation of well-known market makers at this critical juncture will undoubtedly push this trend to a higher level.
Technical breakthrough: On the weekly chart, after a year-long bottom shock, $AGLD is breaking through and moving upward, with an extremely beautiful trend. As the saying goes, "the longer the horizontal, the higher the vertical", when the L2 craze comes, the future of $AGLD is worth looking forward to.
In addition, the v4 upgrade of dydx is a relatively large narrative recently, and there is generally positive feedback about DYDX V4 and its impact on the DYDX token. The migration to dYdX Chain is seen as a step towards greater decentralization and scalability, which may attract more users to the platform and increase demand for DYDX tokens.
The last one is L2, which was planned a long time ago, so I won’t go into details here.