The illusion of the US stock bubble: countdown to burst or new highs?
The surge in US stocks is like a grand fireworks feast, dazzling, but it makes people doubtful. Is this a true portrayal of economic prosperity, or a false carnival manipulated by human factors? The carnival of the stock market seems to have forgotten the flow of time. Can the United States really "buy" South Korea and Japan at this speed?
Last year, the Fed's interest rate hike strategy was like a sharp double-edged sword. Silicon Valley Bank was the first to bear the brunt, and the shock of the financial market spread like ripples. The prediction of the recurrence of the Lehman Brothers crisis gradually disappeared in the carnival of the stock market, and those warning voices seemed to be drowned in the carnival of the bubble.
The layoffs of technology giants such as Amazon and the recession predictions of economists seem to be just stepping stones for the rise of the stock market. The decline in inflation rate, the steady growth of GDP, and the decline in unemployment rate, these economic data seem to laugh at those traditional economic theories. The delicate balance between the central bank's interest rate cut and economic growth, unemployment rate and inflation depicted by the Phillips curve seems to have become an empty talk in front of the United States.
However, the mountains of debt, the uncontrolled growth of consumption, and the US government's debt strategy have aroused global attention and concern. But history also tells us that every technological innovation is a powerful driving force for social progress. The rise of AI is not only a technological revolution, but also a major turning point in the economic cycle.
But in this bubble carnival, should we keep a clear head? How long can this feast last? Has the countdown to the bubble burst begun, or will the US stock market create a new historical height again? The answer to all this may only be given by time.
For us, the most important thing is to maintain a rational investment concept and not be confused by short-term market fluctuations. At the same time, we must also pay attention to the general trend of the global economy and changes in policies of various countries to provide strong support for our investment decisions.
