In the macro sense, as the US CPI in June fell beyond expectations, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate hikes have changed dramatically. After the CPI was released, the US dollar index plummeted by more than 3% in a row, hitting a new low in nearly a year. CME interest rate observation shows that the probability of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates after July has dropped to 25%. This shows that the market's expectations for interest rates to peak are getting stronger and stronger. In addition, the inversion of the US 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond interest rates is close to 100 basis points, the highest level in decades, which shows that the market's concerns about the US recession have further increased, and it also suggests that expectations for interest rate cuts are quietly heating up. In short, as the liquidity environment gradually improves, the market's risk appetite is expected to pick up further, and the altcoin market will continue to rotate.
In the short-term market, COMP, 1INCH, SUSHI and other cryptocurrencies suddenly gained momentum, and XRP short-term favorable contract positions hit a record high. This time, it shows that some big market makers are making a new round of layout recently. It should be known that if Bitcoin and Ethereum continue to fall in the short term, the idea of the market makers must be mainly to sell. Such layout and promotion of the outbreak of the sector can only show that they have relatively high expectations for the short- and medium-term market, and this is one of the signs that the market is gradually reaching its peak.
It is certain that there will be some panic after the short-term market decline. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum briefly touched the short-term support and then quickly pulled back. From the perspective of market contract positions, the current Ethereum contract positions are basically cleared, which means that at this stage, the pressure for Ethereum to pull back will be very small. Regardless of the deadline for adjustment, it seems that entering the market with step-by-step support to bet on expectations is still a profit opportunity before the end of this round of market.
How to catch hot spots in the cryptocurrency circle, applicable to any market conditions!
Take 1INCH as an example:
How to seize this hot spot? In fact, the market has already told us the answer a few days ago.
1. Too many people may not pay attention to the good news
2. Increase in volume, trading volume and price take off simultaneously
3. Trading volume of Korean exchanges continues to rise
4. Contract positions continue to increase!
Copycat operation method: When chasing a car, take profit in batches, withdraw the principal, and the profit can be structured. Don’t dream of selling at the highest point!
The following suggestions:
The main goal this year is to maintain stability. Make money that can be made, and don’t even look at what cannot be earned. Never make risky transactions to ensure the safety of the principal. You can have short-term thinking this year and run when you make money. Once you enter 2024, immediately abandon the short-term thinking. After 24 years, it will most likely be a market for making money, but I don’t expect it to be too smooth. How can these wolves on Wall Street easily share their meat!
The only thing we can do is to hold on to our own advantageous chips, follow the trend, achieve the goal, take profits in batches, and withdraw cash in batches. After an entire bull market, the probability of achieving the expected 10-30 times return is still very high.
If after 2024, you still maintain a short-term mindset, whether the bull market comes or not, or how big it is, it seems to have little to do with you, and there is a 99% chance that you will be the one who loses money!
How to plan for the second half of the year? Pay attention to those hot spots
BTC has come to this stage, [the focus is on spot #ETF] whether the application can be passed, if it is passed, it will rise sharply, if it is not passed, it will fall sharply. Currently, more than 5 companies have applied together, and they have obtained approval results in August and September respectively. The currency circle has applied for BTC spot ETF for 10 years. If the application can be passed, it can only be BlackRock, because they have a record of about 500 ETF applications being approved, which is amazing. We believe that the probability of the application being approved is 30%. If the lawsuit between the SEC and Coinbase is resolved, these ETFs will most likely not be approved. Regarding ETFs, there is another trend worth paying attention to. Recently, Canada's spot Bitcoin ETF (BTCC) has continued to receive inflows, with 5,638 bitcoins flowing into the ETF in June and July. Most of the current purchases are retail investors, and institutions only account for 0.03%.
Bitcoin will be halved next year, and judging by the trend, the next bull market will begin next year. The second half of 2023 to the first quarter of next year will be the best time to ambush and build positions!
Buy promising altcoins that can increase 100 times!
The key point is to buy at a suitable low price and ambush. It is best if the market value does not exceed 200 million US dollars, and within 100 million US dollars is even better.
The purchase price is within 2 times of the institutional purchase price, or even closer to the institutional price. Moreover, the currency circle prefers new ones rather than old ones. When choosing altcoins, you must look for the leading coins in the hot narrative tracks of the next bull market. The tracks I am paying attention to include #Layer2, #LSD, #LSDFi, #AI, etc.
Many people have introduced the popular currencies in these tracks, such as $Arb, $Lido, $Pendle, $RNDR, etc. There will also be leading coins in the L2 ecosystem, such as $RDNT for lending. There is also the leading coin $Blur for NFT exchanges/NFTFi.
In addition, there are many popular projects that have not yet issued coins. For example, only two of the four major L2 giants have issued coins. StarkNet and ZkSync have not issued coins yet. It is estimated that they will issue coins by the first half of next year at the latest.
In short, there are a lot of coins to choose from. But we don’t need to cast a wide net. It is enough to focus on 3-5 tracks and buy 10-15 coins.
The higher the market value and the more mature the project is, the higher its security is, but the room for growth may be limited. Therefore, the coins you buy can still be differentiated at certain levels, including coins with different market values and different tracks.
RWA is expected to bring in incremental funds
Under the influence of the compliance narrative, RWA has gradually gained market attention. We believe that RWA may be a strategic opportunity, which is expected to bring tens of billions of dollars of capital inflow to the Crypto market and become an important driving force for the next bull market.
From another perspective, USDT and USDC are the largest RWA projects, with a total market value of nearly $110 billion, but the profits generated by their US dollar reserves have not fed back to the market.
The RWA project that provides U.S. debt actually takes away the cake of Tether, Circle and other U.S. dollar stablecoin operators. By charging lower fees, most of the profits are fed back to the market, bringing incremental funds to the market.
Existing RWA projects have made some progress, but there is still a long way to go
There are already many projects in the industry that are developing into the RWA field. For example, MakerDao introduced U.S. Treasury bonds as collateral and distributed interest to DAI holders. The founder of Compound has also started a new business, hoping to tokenize U.S. Treasury bonds and bring real benefits to DeFi users. Benefiting from the development of the RWA field, MKR and COMP have performed very well recently.
Of course, we must also see that the current RWA project is not mature, and it is difficult for DeFi users to smoothly obtain a US bond interest rate of up to 5%. RWA assets still have a long way to go to achieve the goal of being safe, efficient, and accessible.
But on the other hand, this also means that the existing RWA projects are still far from reaching their ceiling and still have huge room for growth. When more and more RWA projects are successfully run, RWA-Fi will also become an investment direction similar to LSD-Fi.
MKR and COMP are similar to LDO and RPL, and they rose first in the early stage of RWA development. As the scale of RWA continues to expand, upper-layer DeFi projects based on RWA assets will emerge in the future, becoming Alpha investment opportunities in the mid-to-late stage of RWA. I believe that RWA has long-term strategic significance and will become an important driving force for the next bull market.
Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.