In the macro sense, as the US CPI in June fell beyond expectations, the market's expectations for the Fed's interest rate hikes have changed dramatically. After the CPI was released, the US dollar index plummeted by more than 3% in a row, hitting a new low in nearly a year. CME interest rate observation shows that the probability of the Fed continuing to raise interest rates after July has dropped to 25%. This shows that the market's expectations for interest rates to peak are getting stronger and stronger. In addition, the inversion of the US 2-year and 10-year Treasury bond interest rates is close to 100 basis points, the highest level in decades, which shows that the market's concerns about the US recession have further increased, and it also suggests that expectations for interest rate cuts are quietly heating up. In short, as the liquidity environment gradually improves, the market's risk appetite is expected to pick up further, and the altcoin market will continue to rotate.
As the altcoin market gradually shifts from general growth to differentiation, signs of funds flocking to strong themes are becoming increasingly obvious, which indicates that the main tone of the market in the future may be that the strong will always be strong.
How to plan for the second half of the year? Pay attention to those hot spots
BTC has come to this stage. [The focus is on spot #ETF] Whether the application can be approved, it will rise sharply if it is approved, and it will fall sharply if it is not approved. Currently, more than 5 companies have applied together, and they have obtained approval results in August and September. The currency circle has applied for BTC spot ETF for 10 years. If the application is approved, it can only be BlackRock, because they have a record of about 500 ETF applications being approved, which is awesome. We believe that the probability of the application being approved is 30%. If the lawsuit between the SEC and Coinbase is resolved, these ETFs will most likely not be approved. Regarding ETFs, there is another trend worth paying attention to. Recently, #Canada's spot Bitcoin ETF (BTCC) has continued to receive inflows, with 5,638 bitcoins flowing into the ETF in June and July. Most of the current purchases are retail investors, and institutions account for only 0.03%.
The copycat bull market triggered by XRP can help to trace the current market trends: 1. XRP is defined as a securities currency by SEC, $ADA, $SOL, $matic, and a renamed Buff is stacked on top. 2. Twitter icon launches creator sharing plan Twitter concept currency $MOB, $MASK. 3. All POS-based public chains have the opportunity to have $FTM. 4. The upgraded Layer2 series $ARB, $OP in Cancun is just right for the wash. 5. RWA concept, POW hype has temporarily come to an end.
Bitcoin will be halved next year, and judging by the trend, the next bull market will begin next year. The second half of 2023 to the first quarter of next year will be the best time to ambush and build positions!
Buy promising altcoins that can increase 100 times!
The key point is to buy at a suitable low price and ambush. It is best if the market value does not exceed 200 million US dollars, and within 100 million US dollars is even better.
The purchase price is within 2 times of the institutional purchase price, or even closer to the institutional price. Moreover, the currency circle prefers new ones rather than old ones. When choosing altcoins, you must look for the leading coins in the hot narrative tracks of the next bull market. The tracks I am paying attention to include #Layer2, #LSD, #LSDFi, #AI, etc.
Many people have introduced the popular currencies in these tracks, such as $Arb, $Lido, $Pendle, $RNDR, etc. There will also be leading coins in the L2 ecosystem, such as $RDNT for lending. There is also the leading coin $Blur for NFT exchanges/NFTFi.
In addition, there are many popular projects that have not yet issued coins. For example, only two of the four major L2 giants have issued coins. StarkNet and ZkSync have not issued coins yet. It is estimated that they will issue coins by the first half of next year at the latest.
In short, there are a lot of coins to choose from. But we don’t need to cast a wide net. It is enough to focus on 3-5 tracks and buy 10-15 coins.
The higher the market value and the more mature the project is, the higher its security is, but the room for growth may be limited. Therefore, the coins you buy can still be differentiated at certain levels, including coins with different market values and different tracks.
For my position
50% will be invested in #BTC , #ETH, and 30% will be dispersed into 10-15 altcoins, which will be bought at the right price.
Another 10% will be used to buy Meme coins. The trading strategy is to start buying $Pepe, $Ladys, $Ordi and other Meme coins that may continue to explode in the next bull market after the price drops to a suitable level, provided that the price drops low enough! I will try to get a bull market, and then sell when Musk calls for orders again, hahaha~
Finally, there is 10% in cash, which can be used to speculate on local dogs, memes, NFTs, and to pick up bargains when the price unexpectedly drops to an ultra-low level when a black swan occurs.
After all, even if the transaction difficulty reaches a hellish level from the second half of next year to the beginning of next year, there will definitely be continuous golden dogs appearing, and there will also be continuous new hype stories. Whether it is Meme or NFT, there will still be many opportunities to make money.
Because the cryptocurrency circle cannot stop making fortunes or Ponzi schemes. Only in this way can it continue to attract new investors.
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