Judging from the current distribution of BTC chips, more chips are concentrated around $30,000, which has exceeded 1 million BTC. This is much higher than the 870,000 stocks at $16,500 and the 710,000 stocks at $3,500. Although historical data shows that high accumulations may eventually lead to a sharp rise due to the reduction of selling pressure, repeated fluctuations or even sharp declines before the sharp rise will also be accompanied by

In layman's terms, when a large amount of BTC with a single price accumulates, because the chips are too concentrated, once negative emotions appear, it will trigger a large-scale selling pressure, causing the price to fall. But relatively speaking, it is also because the chips are too concentrated that a strong bottom consensus will be formed. As long as the price does not fall too sharply, more chips will not be sold, and the energy required to pull the market will be lower.

I have never seen the stock exceed 1.1 million. Now it is 1.003 million. It should be heading in the right direction.

Outrage? No!

Today, the distribution of the rise and fall of the top 200 tokens in the entire market is not as strong as yesterday, but it is still much stronger than the day before yesterday.

I continue to hold the previous view that the cyclical factors affecting the crypto market in the second half of July will maintain a relatively strong equilibrium state, and the market will most likely fluctuate upward. You can actively pursue popular narratives, or adopt a neutral strategy like me to reap the dividends of volatility.

I will focus on the following narratives

Cancun Upgrade

ON

The Cancun upgrade is coming soon. Coinbase's Base will launch the mainnet for developers and plans to launch it publicly in early August, built on OP. And CB's stock price has been very strong recently, so you all understand.

arb

The "Efficient Market Hypothesis" (EMH) is used to analyze whether the price of arb can be pulled up at the moment.

I have always believed that EMH has room for survival. The simplest example is EOS. EOS is almost recognized as the "ETH killer". The fundamentals and price analysis of EOS in the market are already very saturated, that is, almost everyone understands the fundamentals of EOS, and almost everyone believes that the price of EOS has potential. In this case, the value of EOS is actually reflected in the price. There is no assumption of underestimation or overestimation, and the price is reasonable.

The most fundamental premise for the establishment of EMH is "If the fundamentals and price of an underlying asset have been fully recognized by the market, then its current price must be reasonable."

The price and fundamentals of Arb have been recognized by most people over time. Unless the fundamentals change and cause the market's perception to deviate, Arb will not rise sharply in the short term.

Staking: SSV

Although the Shanghai upgrade has been completed and the pledge track has basically landed, I think this is a track that will continue to develop. The reason is that the Ethereum that is currently pledged only accounts for less than 17% of its total. We can see from the figure below that the general public chain pledge rate is around 50%, and Ethereum is still far behind. Moreover, Ethereum is the largest public chain in the ecosystem. From POW to POS, more pledges are definitely needed to maintain the security of the network, so I think the development of this area is continuous.

Why choose SSV? It is DVT technology, which maintains the security of the entire pledge service and users. It is an absolute necessity for the current pledge. The current market value is only 220 million US dollars, and there is still a lot of room for improvement. In the expected upgrade of Shanghai this year, its performance will be better. Another point is that in this wave of rise, the dealer has already sold a lot of goods, which may be a good thing for the future.

However, the short-term impact of SSV will not be significant, so long-term players can consider it.