Two days ago, there was a sudden change in the Bitcoin wallet controlled by the US government.
$297 million worth of Bitcoin was transferred to multiple wallets
Where did this $300 million worth of Bitcoin come from?
How much Bitcoin does the U.S. government actually own?
Will the U.S. government sell off all $300 million worth of Bitcoin?
Then read on and we’ll find out for you!
There are on-chain data analysis and macro analysis at the end of the article.
Where did $300 million worth of Bitcoin come from?
These Bitcoins came from the infamous "Silk Road"
Silk Road is a dark web marketplace.
Drugs, illegal guns, and even people can be traded on it.
Because of the encryption and privacy features of Bitcoin, all transactions on the Silk Road were paid in Bitcoin.
In 2013, Ross Ulbricht, the founder of the Silk Road, was arrested, and 69,370 Bitcoins on the Silk Road were seized by the U.S. Department of Justice.
How much Bitcoin does the U.S. government actually own?
The U.S. government currently holds a total of: 205,515 Bitcoins (approximately $6.27 billion)
They are obtained from the following channels:
1. 69,370 Bitcoins confiscated from Silk Road;
2. 94,640 Bitcoins confiscated from the Bitfinex hack;
3. Seize 51,326 Bitcoins belonging to hacker James Chung.
Will the US government sell all of its $300 million worth of Bitcoin?
1. This time the U.S. government divided all Bitcoins into 101 addresses. This is not like sorting out wallets.
2. The US government has already sold one bitcoin on March 14 this year and promised to sell another 41,490 bitcoins this year.
After comprehensive judgment, this time it is true, and the coins must be sold!
According to past experience, these tokens will flow into the exchange within a week or so.
In the short term, this is a big negative factor, and the selling pressure of 300 million US dollars is still considerable.
However, referring to the last time the U.S. government sold coins, it sold 258 million U.S. dollars worth of Bitcoin at one time. It did not have much impact on the market, and BTC went up instead.
So we don’t need to panic too much. As long as we control our positions, there is nothing to be afraid of.
Don’t fill up your account with copycat stocks, don’t open high-leverage contracts, and it’s okay to wait until you avoid this black swan before taking action.
On-chain data: bearish
There is a small inflow of Bitcoin into the exchange, and some users are recharging to dump the market
The stablecoins of the exchange are in a state of outflow, and no users are entering the market to buy at the bottom
Macroscopic aspect: short-term negative, long-term positive
1. Russia claims that World War III is getting closer
Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said on the 11th that NATO's decision to expand its military aid to Ukraine is bringing the world closer to World War III.
But these aids will not stop Russia. Russia's special military operations will continue its previous goals, one of which is that Ukraine cannot join NATO.
If the war expands, the stock market will plummet and Bitcoin will be affected
2. The United States is at the beginning of a debt crisis
After a long-standing political impasse over the sovereign debt ceiling was resolved in early June, U.S. government debt surged by a staggering $1 trillion in just one month.
The total outstanding public debt of the United States has now climbed to $32.5 trillion. The problem is that the government is selling a lot of debt but no one is buying it.
The debt crisis in the United States will lead to an economic recession and a severe financial crisis. The stock market will plummet, causing BTC to also fall.
3. Authoritative reporters announced that there will be no interest rate hike after July.
Nick, a Wall Street Journal reporter known as the "New Fed News Agency", commented on the June CPI data in an article yesterday, saying that inflation fell to its lowest level in more than two years last month, freeing Americans from the painful period of rising prices and increasing the possibility that the Fed will stop raising interest rates after this month's rate hike. Currently, many investment banks and market authorities believe that July is the last rate hike, which is quite dangerous because continuing to raise interest rates will break market expectations and lead to a sharp drop.
Inflation has not yet reached the target of 2%, and the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates. The Bank of Canada continued to raise interest rates last night, raising interest rates by 25 basis points to 5.00%, raising concerns that Canada's efforts to restore inflation to its 2% target may stall.