• Today's highlights

The key point is that everyone should wait patiently for the CPI data of June of the beacon country to be released at 8:30.

In addition, regarding this data, I clearly told you in my sharing on Monday about the possible market conditions that will be corresponding to the values ​​released by the data. I will elaborate on it here today:

The previous value of CPI data was 4%, and the current market expectation is 3.1%.

Assuming that the CPI data released at 8:30 tonight is in line with the expected value of 3.1%, it will be considered a small positive in the short term. If it is lower than 3.1%, it will be a positive, and the positive will be greater. The release of CPI values ​​mainly affects the decision of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting on the 26th of this month on whether to raise interest rates in July.

Currently, the market has high expectations that the Federal Reserve will choose to raise interest rates again on the 26th of this month, and there is even a consensus that the Federal Reserve will choose to raise interest rates again on the 26th of this month.

Therefore, I personally feel that only if the US CPI data for June is lower than the forecast value of 3.1% at 8:30 tonight can the Federal Reserve's determination to raise interest rates again on the 26th of this month be shaken.

Because if the CPI value announced tonight is lower than the forecast of 3.1% again, the next figure will be 3% or even below 3%. At present, halfway through 2023, if the figure falls below 3.1%, the Fed will not be far from its goal of keeping inflation below 2%.

If the CPI released tonight is really lower than the predicted value of 3.1%, and all the past CPI statistics of the lighthouse country are genuine and truly reflect the inflation situation of the lighthouse country. I can even think that there is a high probability that the inflation data of lighthouse countries will return to less than 2% this year.

Any macro-control has a delayed effect. For example, after the 312 market in 2020 caused panic-induced circuit breakers in the U.S. stock market, the United States launched a global super-large money printing operation without any bottom line, which led to the performance of the beacon country's super-large notice only starting to slowly soar in mid-2021.

In plain words, the Fed's current interest rate hike to control inflation is also delayed. If the CPI value announced tonight is lower than the predicted value of 3.1%, and the Fed chooses to raise interest rates on the 26th, even I personally worry about the recession and collapse of the beacon country.

Because deflation is really more difficult to deal with than inflation! Macroeconomic controls such as interest rate hikes and water withdrawals take effect faster than inflation. However, once deflation, recession, and depression occur, the confidence of the entire market and everyone's confidence will be severely hit. It is much more difficult to change this kind of blow to confidence from the bottom of your heart. For specific details, you can refer to the current real estate market in our country to see how difficult it is to recover after confidence has been hit. Of course, those who have just-needed housing probably can't feel it. Those who own dozens of properties probably will feel it.

Therefore, I personally think that if the CPI value released tonight is lower than the expected value of 3.1% again, the beacon country really dare not choose to raise interest rates again on the 26th of this month. Wouldn’t it be better to maintain the current high interest rate and let inflation slowly decline? Must it fall freely and fall sharply out of control? Are they really not afraid of economic deflation, recession, depression, and collapse?

So, let me share my thoughts.

The CPI is announced to be 3.1%, so continue to keep the four-level risk control position of the short position unchanged. Be patient and wait for the subsequent market conditions. Choose to continue to sell when the price rises, and choose to earn coins and take over the goods when the price falls.

If the CPI data is released and it is lower than 3.1%, add one layer and short three layers. Add this time to take advantage of the short-term rebound and take advantage of the small bull tail to finally go for this wave.

If the CPI data is 3.1% higher than expected, then sell one more layer, so that the overall short position reaches 5 layers. Then, wait patiently for the opportunity to earn coins by falling back.

  • Today's short-term speculative thinking

This part of the content requires friends who have short-term operation capabilities to consider participating. Friends who do not have short-term operation capabilities should give up on their own initiative!

Personally, I think that tonight before the data is released, the dog dealer will most likely repeat the past history of making a wave of ups and downs. Therefore, there may be opportunities for short-term trading. See the following conjectures for details:

In the short term, the market will fall first and then rise. In the period between 8:20 and 9:00, the market suddenly fell sharply. If Bitcoin fell below 30,000 and Ethereum fell below 1,800, short-term investors can buy in without hesitation to grab the rebound. If there is a subsequent rebound, the daily limit will run away from this part of the position and take a short-term profit.

In the short term, it will rise first and then fall. During the period from 8:20 to 9:00, the market suddenly rose sharply. If Bitcoin rose above 31456 and Ethereum rose above 1970, the short-term volatility position will be quickly sold until the daily limit is reached. When the price falls back, you can immediately choose to earn coins and take back this part of the position to get a short-term wave of volatility profits.

In the above two situations, based on my current technical situation and my personal experience and feeling, I think the first one is more likely to happen, where the market crashes first and then rises.

Therefore, if there is a large-scale market crash between 8:20 and 9:00 today, I will add a layer of speculation to grab a rebound. On the contrary, if there is a large-scale increase, I will add a layer of speculation and wait for a wave of upward spikes before stepping back to make money.

Here I emphasize again that those who have no experience in short-term volatility operations should not participate. Otherwise, it is easy to encounter problems such as not buying in when the market crashes, panicking when the market crashes, not selling when the market rebounds, and holding on to the market when the market retreats again.

  • Thinking about the future of the cryptocurrency world

I personally think that our circle should patiently wait out the small bull market. Then prepare enough bullets and chips, endure the shock and sideways, patiently wait for the arrival of opportunities, chances, black swans, etc., and then continue to buy and firmly buy to get as many chips as possible, and then firmly hold on to the arrival of the big bull market.