#5月市场关键事件 #美联储利率决议即将公布 Mr. Bao's remarks tonight reveal the future direction of monetary policy. First, regarding interest rate cuts, we should not expect too much, considering that the inflation rate has not yet fallen below 2%. Based on the situation in the first quarter, the possibility of a rate cut at the end of the year that was previously predicted has been greatly reduced, and even the election results are unlikely to change this situation.
Second, regarding interest rate hikes, if the inflation rate exceeds 4% (although it is still fluctuating in the range of 2%-3%), or if inflation is not effectively reduced for a long time, then a rate hike strategy may be put on the agenda. However, the Fed is currently confident in the existing data, so Mr. Bao made it clear that the next interest rate policy adjustment is unlikely to be a rate hike.
Furthermore, regarding the maintenance of interest rates, Mr. Bao believes that unless there is a major change in the data, the interest rate policy will remain relatively stable. But if the inflation data remains unchanged for a long time, then the Fed may be more inclined to take interest rate hikes.
In general, the adjustment of interest rate policy will mainly depend on changes in data. Rate hikes or cuts are unlikely to be achieved in the short term, but in the long run, we may see policy changes around 2025. If inflation still fails to fall below the key 2% target, the possibility of a rate hike remains.
