This is in stark contrast to the crypto winter experienced in 2022. In the first half of 2023, Bitcoin rebounded from January 1st, and has risen to around $30,500 today, up nearly 100%, far exceeding other major assets in the world. The Nasdaq index rose 31.7%, ranking second, and stock markets in other major countries rose. Natural gas prices fell 37%, ranking last, and other energy prices all fell.
On June 22, 2023, BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, applied to launch a Bitcoin spot ETF. As a result, Bitcoin rose to its highest price of $31,420 on June 23. With BlackRock's strength and influence, the Bitcoin spot ETF application is likely to be approved after submission. In 2017, BlackRock's CEO still believed that Bitcoin was a money laundering index, but in 2023, BlackRock's CEO believed that Bitcoin was an international asset. The change of concepts is the power of time and the charm of money.
All the news released in the market is used to mislead investors, and the substantive news that has not been released eventually dominates the market. Before BlackRock applied to launch a Bitcoin spot ETF, the market makers would ambush in advance. Once the news was announced, Bitcoin would rise sharply, and the market makers would successfully sell all the goods and then make short orders. Then BlackRock's application to launch a Bitcoin spot ETF was not approved, and Bitcoin plummeted, hitting the golden bottom. Then the market makers and BlackRock collected low-priced chips at the bottom of the market, and after the price rose, they repeatedly shook and washed the market. After the washing, a new round of bull market began.
Nowadays, small shrimp addresses with less than one bitcoin are accumulating bitcoins at a rate of 33,800 per month. The monthly output of bitcoins is about 27,000. The crazy accumulation of bitcoins by small shrimp addresses may lead to the ultimate market maker shock, and the violent drop will shake out the bitcoins in the small shrimp addresses. Then the banker will swallow them up.
The cryptocurrency market has a clear short-term stagflation trend, and a new round of big washouts is about to begin. With the U.S. stock market taking a break again, the entire crypto market has entered a high-level sideways trend. The market volatility has been decreasing over the past 48 hours, and the short-term stagflation trend has become increasingly apparent. In the short term, the open interest of Bitcoin and Ethereum contracts has gradually increased and is close to the previous high. According to historical logic, a new round of washouts is about to begin.
Judging from the market situation, the bull market is in the final stage. With Bitcoin's annual price nearly doubling, the most optimistic scenario is that it can still have a 10% ultimate sprint at the end of the trading day.
On April 14, 2023, Bitcoin hit a new high of $31,000 this year. More than two months later.
On June 23, it hit a high of $31,420 and then fell back.
On June 30, it hit a high of $31,280 and then fell back.
On July 4, it hit a high of $31,370 and then fell back.
After each surge, it failed to stabilize at $31,000. The momentum was exhausted after continuous surges. According to Bitcoin's previous performance of falling when it stops rising and rising when it stops falling, the probability of a sharp drop in Bitcoin is increasing.
In the past two days, Bitcoin has returned below the 10-day moving average. These two days are confirming the effectiveness of falling below the 10-day moving average. After confirmation, a new round of sharp decline will most likely begin.
In August 2017, Bitcoin hit a record high of $4,600. On September 4, the People's Bank of China, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission and ten other ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Notice on Further Preventing and Dealing with the Risks of Virtual Currency Trading Speculation". Bitcoin fell 8% that day. In the following week, Bitcoin fell 30 points in a row, and at its lowest point, it had fallen to $2,980.
At 6 p.m. on March 12, 2020, Bitcoin began to fall rapidly from nearly $8,000 to around $6,000. On the morning of the 13th, the price of Bitcoin continued to fall, reaching a low of $3,800; the maximum drop in Bitcoin exceeded 50%, which is rare in history.
On May 10, 2021, Bitcoin hit a record high of $59,520. On May 19, Bitcoin fell to $29,000. Almost all mainstream currencies were cut in half in one day. Bitcoin once fell by about 30% in US dollars. Ethereum once fell by nearly 50%.
The classic 94 in 2017, 312 in 2020, and 519 in 2021. It has been more than two years since the 519 market. Every two to three years, Bitcoin will plummet after hitting a new high for the year, and then it will go into a bull market after the plunge. History will not repeat itself but it will be surprisingly similar. The currency circle has experienced wild growth, and the birth of countless new tokens every year is explosive, like mushrooms after rain, and they all need a big cleansing.
Before the bull market starts, it needs a deep squat and fall to jump higher. This will be caused by unpredictable external or internal factors. From the second half of this year to the first and second quarters of next year, if you are lucky enough to have it, it will be a golden pit, just be brave to pick up the chips. At the same time, we will continue to insist on fixed investment this year and do long in the crypto world in the long term.