In the second half of 2023, the cryptocurrency market is in a weak adjustment cycle. The price of Bitcoin is hovering around 30,300 points, and it almost fell below 30,000 points yesterday. The sustainability of the current market short position is not strong, and most currencies are hovering above the strong support ahead, waiting for the choice of market direction.

From the perspective of short-term market conditions, we need to clarify our understanding of Bitcoin's current price above 30,000. Personally, I think that the cycle so far this year can be regarded as the tail end of Bitcoin's market, which has been discussed by the market for several months. In other words, in the market sentiment FOMO state led by Bitcoin, there is still a lack of the last closing stage. Obviously, the market is more active now than ever before, but there is still a certain distance to reach the FOMO sentiment.

After the short-term market is over, whether the big cake hits 32,000 points or 35,000 points, this is just a short-term event and has nothing to do with most people. In fact, this period of market may put the vast majority of people in an unfavorable position and hang them on the tree.

After that, the market may usher in a new round of major correction or pull-up, depending on whether the ETFs of institutions such as BlackRock can be approved. The only uncertainty at present is whether the ETF can be approved, which is a super positive, but it is not certain at present. In addition, in the second half of 2023, there will be some bad news, which we already know.

Bull market - layout leading sectors! Seize the new track! ARB: The bull market will definitely lead to an increase in on-chain transactions, and Ethereum's second-layer network can solve the problem of on-chain transaction congestion. This sector will definitely have great potential. Pepe: Every time a bull market comes, there will be a surge in meme tokens. Shib and doge are already old coins, and there is not much room for speculation. Pepe meme coins can bring fresh blood to the cryptocurrency market.

In every round of bull market, public chains have performed very well: BTC in 2013, ETH in 2016-2017, Sol Matic Dot Avax Vet Ftm in 2020-2021, etc. In the next round of bull market, will the ones that have skyrocketed continue to soar? The answer is yes, but the increase will shrink as the market value increases, just like Bitcoin, ETH rose 40 times while Bitcoin only 20 times;

What we need to do today is to screen potential public chains!

1、MINE

Features: It was launched on Binance on August 21, 2021, and has fallen by more than 90% since then. It ranks 23rd among public chains. It is one of the lightest blockchains in the world and the purest ZK project. It has an unlimited supply similar to doge. The main force has enough chips to increase distribution in the new round of bull market. It is expected to be in the top 10 public chains in 2025!

Buying time reference: before Bitcoin halving in March 2024 ~ after September 2023

2、Apt（Layer1）

Features: It will be launched on Binance in October 2022. Apt is expected to replace Sol and enter the top 5 public chains in 2025. It has unlimited supply, similar to ETH and Doge, so the main players have enough time and chips to distribute profits in the crazy bubble of the bull market. However, due to the current large market value, I think we should wait for the monthly line to open a negative line before considering the layout.

Layout time: After September 2023 ~ Before March 2024 (Don’t chase the rise, follow the time)

3. People (Dao faucet)

Features: Decentralization. The cool thing about it is the consensus value. It does not have highlights such as technology and team. After all, in a bull market, even dog shit can fly to the sky. Compared with the last round of 100-fold Dogecoin and Shib, which were launched on Binance in November 2021, they have not experienced a bull market. They have low market value and unit price, and large total volume, which meets the characteristics of the last round of 100-fold coins.

Best time to deploy: November 2023 to April 2024 (close to Bitcoin halving)

The Cancun upgrade resonates with the BTC halving, and the pattern in the second half of the year will be shaken up!

There is currently no specific time given for the Cancun upgrade, but it will probably be in the second half of 2023, and the next BTC halving will be on May 9, 2024. The halving expectations are often hyped in advance, which coincides with the Cancun upgrade time in the second half of the year, and a new round of reshuffle may be coming.

Impact on L1 chain:

Op and Arb alone have been killing it in the public chain market. Arb's TVL is second only to Tron and BSC. Op is weaker than Arb, but it has also squeezed into the top 6, ahead of the last round of star public faces Avax, FTM, Sol, etc.

After the Cancun upgrade in the second half of the year, the competitive advantage of ETH L2 will increase by another order of magnitude. It will become increasingly difficult for non-ETH public chains, and most of them will be eliminated by the market.

Competition within L2 itself:

Arb and Op have dominated the L2 market with their first-mover advantage, but with the Cancun upgrade approaching in the second half of the year, the entire Rollup track will usher in a general rise in benefits. The competition among L2 solutions and the competition among L2s with the same solution will become increasingly fierce, and the emergence of new dark horses cannot be ruled out.

In addition to ETH itself, there are 5 investment opportunities worth investing in Cancun

No.1: L2 faucet - Arb, Op

These two are the L2s with the largest TVL and users at present. They have sufficient first-mover advantages and legitimacy, and already have a certain ecological moat. They are the core targets of the Cancun upgrade.

No.2: Leading applications - GMX, RDNT, Magic, Velo, Snx

GMX, RDNT, and Magic are Arb series, Velo and Snx are op series, and they have obtained corresponding L2 support respectively. The explosion of L2 will also drive the explosion of their ecosystem.

No.3: L2 alternative - Polygon.

Polygon is a side chain with its own independent consensus and is not considered L2, but Polygon has several ZK Layer2 solutions, including Polygon ZKEVM. Polygon is equivalent to shifting from the public chain market to embracing ETH L2, and has strong technical strength and market driving force.

No.4: zkRollup application projects — LRC, IMX

Currently, general zkRollup has not issued any coins. LRC and IMX are the sectors of ZK L2 that are more likely to be hyped.

No.5: Optimism Fork—Boba, Metis

It lacks legitimacy, but the performance is similar, the ecology is weaker, the odds are higher, and it is the last segment of the Cancun upgrade.

Finally, there are still many things that are not written down, such as specific opportunities and specific decisions. These things are often not something that can be summarized in one article.