This week, the US non-farm data is coming, including large and small non-farm data, with small non-farm data in front and large non-farm data in the back!
It can be said that this provides strong support for the decision to raise interest rates at 2:00 a.m. on the 27th of this month!
So what are big non-farm and small non-farm?
The big non-farm refers to the three values of non-agricultural employment, employment rate and unemployment rate, which reflect the employment status of the non-agricultural population in the United States. One of the important bases for the Federal Reserve to measure the national economy and adjust monetary policy is the non-farm. It is compiled and released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor on the first Friday of each month (20:30 summer time, 21:30 winter time).
Small non-farm payrolls refers to the ADP employment data, which is released on the first Wednesday of each month. The ADP employment data is unofficial survey data, but the agency is huge and has investigators in every city around the world. The employment data released is more authoritative. (The report is collected from employment data of about 500,000 private companies in the United States. To a certain extent, it also reflects the employment situation in the United States. This can be used as a reference, but it is mainly based on the large non-farm payrolls.)
What is the relationship between the big and small non-farm payrolls?
There is a strong positive correlation between the small non-farm and the large non-farm, and traders often use the ADP report to "calibrate" expectations for Friday's non-farm report.
It is not difficult to see from the above that ADP, or small non-farm payrolls, is a reflection of the vitality of the U.S. economy, while the big non-farm payrolls is the official reflection!
The more ADP employment figures there are, the better the economy is. Capital has a relatively wide range of adjustable space! It is good for the economy, and risk assets are bearish!
The employment status of the big non-agricultural data has a wider coverage and more complete data. Similarly, the better the employment, the stronger the economy, and the tighter the capital easing will be!
So in the past few years of BTC's non-agricultural data, the trend has basically been up and down in the 10 minutes before and after the announcement!
The momentum lies in delivering on expectations. Often after 20:30, a sharp drop or surge in the market is easiest to harvest, because the global financial derivatives markets worth hundreds of trillions of dollars, such as foreign exchange, gold, US dollar, and commodities, are all watching. Market fluctuations are most likely to cause the birth of fomo sentiment, and are often the best opportunity for the main funds to reap the rewards!
If there is a downward trend between 19:00 and 20:00, there is hope that the market will rise and fall around 20:30!
If it climbs slowly from 19:00 to 20:00, it is expected to fall first and then pull up around 20:30!
If it goes sideways, there is a high probability of up and down spikes, with 150-300/200-400 dollars as a ladder; 500-800 is a fluctuation range far beyond expectations!
You can lightly position, set up take-profit and stop-loss orders in advance, and anticipate the market trend! #你了解非农周吗