Original author: Mary Liu
Original source: Bitpush
One of the Fed’s preferred inflation measures – the core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index – showed inflation remained sticky, rising 2.8% in March from a year earlier, above expectations for 2.7%, prompting many traders to reassess their risk exposure.
The cryptocurrency market ended the week poorly, with Bitcoin continuing to test the key $64,000 level repeatedly and most altcoins falling slightly. Bitpush data showed that Bitcoin traded between $63,300 and $64,825 on the day, with bulls and bears evenly matched. At press time, Bitcoin was trading at $63,897, down 1.4% in 24 hours.
ETF outflows are still increasing, with market data showing that U.S.-listed spot BTC ETFs saw a total net outflow of $217 million per day. This brings the total outflow for the week to $244.49 million. In contrast, Bitcoin has risen by around 3.7% over the past seven days. JPMorgan said the correlation between Bitcoin ETF prices and inflows has weakened, from a high of 0.84 in January to 0.60 in the most recent assessment.
Altcoins closed lower for the week, with the vast majority of the top 200 coins seeing negative returns on Friday. Among the gainers, BinaryX (BNX) led the gains, up 18.5% to trade at $1.06, Helium (HNT) up 7.35%, and Neo up 6.7%. cat in a dogs world (MEW) fell 14.3%, the biggest loser on the day, followed by Arweave (AR) and Pendle (PENDLE) down 9.8%.
The overall cryptocurrency market cap is currently $2.36 trillion, with Bitcoin’s dominance rate at 53.5%.
U.S. stocks closed higher for the week despite higher-than-expected inflation data as earnings reports from Alphabet and Microsoft fueled investor hopes for a rebound in big tech stocks.
The S&P, Dow and Nasdaq closed higher, up 1.02%, 0.40% and 2.03% respectively. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.41% on the PCE report, trading at 106.02 at the time of writing, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell 88 basis points to 4.665%.
BTC’s boring trend may last for three to six months
Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, said Bitcoin’s boring price action is likely to continue over the next three to six months, which means activity in the altcoin market is likely to increase.
Market analyst CryptoChiefs said: "After a good reaction in the $62,800 area yesterday, Bitcoin has returned to the weekly open of $65,000 in a short period of time, which remains a strong resistance level as we still don't see any 4-hour candles closing above it. This is a big pressure level, but just above this level, we are also facing strong downside resistance."
"The orange trend line (above) has been acting as resistance for nearly three weeks, so watch how it reacts if tested. Further down from here, the DM lows are untested," he said.
Market analyst Castillo Trading believes that the split is currently 50/50 on whether the market will go lower or higher, but he personally would buy the dips.
“For BTC, ETH and other cryptocurrencies, we are basically at a 50/50 position with some valid predictions on whether the market should go down or up. If you are unsure, then any trade is still a trade. Bullish for me, I would personally buy the dips. I agree that this market is boring for participants and this seems to be the key point before we see a big move higher. The fact that the trend has not broken down is a sign of stability to me,” said Castillo Trading on X platform.
$60,000 remains an important level to watch
“Shorts have sold off the strong rally seen earlier this week, while the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving has failed to have any significant impact on price action,” Rachel Lin, co-founder and CEO of SynFutures, said in a note.
Lin noted that looking at Bitcoin price charts during previous halving cycles suggests that “the weeks following the halving will see a sideways or downtrend until BTC breaks above the previous high, currently at 73,600. The nearest support level continues to hold at the 60,000 level, and its importance is evident after the price rebounded sharply after hitting this area last Friday. If the price holds above 60,000, we may see a sideways trend. However, a break below this level could trigger a strong sell-off.”
Lin said she expects Bitcoin’s price action to remain volatile in the short term while moving sideways. Currently, 60,000 and 67,500 remain two important levels to watch. If 60,000 breaks, the next strong support area will be located between 50,000-52,000, which indicates a 15% drop in BTC price. ”
