Mini Program: Daily Cryptocurrency Dynamics Summary
1. Standard Chartered remains bullish on Bitcoin: The situation in the Middle East has caused a recent correction, but it will double again before the end of the year
After Bitcoin completed its quadrennial halving last Saturday Beijing time, JPMorgan warned that Bitcoin may fall after the halving. But Jeff Kendrick, head of digital asset research at Standard Chartered Bank, reiterated in a recent interview that his price target for Bitcoin by the end of this year is $150,000, which means that Bitcoin will more than double its all-time high in March this year by the end of this year. Kendrick said that Bitcoin's decline in recent weeks was mainly due to the slowdown in ETF inflows and tensions in the Middle East - he bluntly said that the situation in the Middle East has "dominated" the crypto market recently. But looking ahead, he believes that with the continued inflow of large-scale Bitcoin ETF funds, the cryptocurrency market may reverse its decline and continue to rise later this year. Kendrick estimates that the US spot Bitcoin ETF has absorbed about $12 billion in funds since it was approved in January this year. He predicts that although the "cryptocurrency circle" sentiment is currently cautious, once the US cryptocurrency ETF market becomes more "mature", the inflow of funds in the next two years may reach $50 billion to $100 billion.
2. Arthur Hayes: The scale of money printing in the United States will be even more exaggerated, and the recent pullback is the time to increase cryptocurrency holdings
Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, wrote that the current crypto bull market has just begun, and investors should boldly turn left (Left Curve), hold and increase positions. Hayes pointed out that 2024 is a critical year, and several major countries will hold presidential elections. Especially in the United States, the current ruling Democratic Party will be re-elected at all costs to reverse the policies of the Republican Party. In an election year, if people feel that the economy is in recession, the probability of the incumbent president's re-election will drop from 67% to 33%. Therefore, the easiest way for the ruling party that controls monetary and fiscal policies is to significantly increase government spending, push up the growth rate of nominal GDP, and create an illusion that there is no recession. Data shows that US government spending has accounted for 23% of nominal GDP, that is, as long as the government is willing to borrow money, nominal GDP can be as much as it wants. According to the forecast of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), whether Biden or Trump comes to power, the fiscal deficit of the US government will continue to expand in the future. In addition, geopolitical conflicts surrounding the United States are still escalating, and politicians are also happy to continue to provide billions of dollars in aid to allies. Hayes emphasized that as long as the government can borrow at an interest rate lower than the growth rate of nominal GDP, politicians will continue to increase spending. Therefore, in the future, the scale of money printing will only be more exaggerated. He suggested that investors take full advantage of the recent pullback in cryptocurrency prices and slowly build positions. With the arrival of summer in the northern hemisphere, the volatility of the crypto market will also decrease, which is an excellent entry time for non-pre-sale investors. Unless the real interest rate turns positive, investors should remain optimistic.
3. Tesla did not sell or buy Bitcoin in the first quarter of this year, and its Bitcoin holdings remained unchanged for seven consecutive quarters
Tesla's latest first quarter 2024 financial report shows that the company's total revenue in the first quarter of this year was US$12.3 billion, far below the expected US$21.4 billion. Free cash flow was negative US$2.5 billion. In addition, Tesla did not sell or buy any Bitcoin in the quarter, marking the seventh consecutive quarter without any buying and selling operations. Tesla currently holds about 9,720 bitcoins, with a current value of approximately US$647 million, a purchase cost of approximately US$337 million, and a floating profit of US$310 million. The last time Tesla reduced its holdings of Bitcoin was in the second quarter of 2022, when the company sold more than 30,000 bitcoins for US$936 million, accounting for about 75% of its holdings. Tesla initially purchased $1.5 billion worth of Bitcoin in early 2021.
4. Bitfinex: Bitcoin halving could cause demand for cryptocurrency to be five times greater than supply
Cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex: Bitcoin’s recent mining reward halving has changed the market, potentially causing demand for the cryptocurrency to be five times greater than supply.
5. Fidelity revised its medium-term outlook for Bitcoin from "positive" to "neutral," saying Bitcoin is no longer seen as having a "low price advantage"
According to Cointelegraph, after the market volatility in the first quarter, Fidelity Digital Assets has adjusted its medium-term outlook for Bitcoin from "positive" to "neutral". This change is mainly based on the information shown by some key indicators: Bitcoin is no longer considered to have a "low price advantage" against the backdrop of a possible increase in selling pressure. In the latest Signals report released on April 22, Fidelity Digital Assets specifically cited the Bitcoin Yardstick or Hashrate Yardstick indicator. This indicator works similarly to the price-to-earnings ratio of stocks and is used to assess whether Bitcoin is undervalued. Fidelity pointed out that the deviation of this indicator from the 51% average in the first quarter is between negative 1 and zero, which means that "Bitcoin was not considered to be at a 'low price' during the first quarter." Fidelity further stated that the current trading price of Bitcoin reflects its "fair value", so the medium-term outlook was adjusted to neutral. In addition, other indicators cited by the company also support this neutral outlook, as long-term holders are increasing selling pressure, and up to 99% of Bitcoin addresses are in a profitable state, which "may further exacerbate selling behavior."
6. HKEX Announcement: The uniform margin rate for non-constituent virtual asset spot ETFs will be set at 30%
Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX) and Hong Kong Securities Clearing Company Limited issued a notice entitled "Margin Rates for Virtual Asset Spot Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)", which stated that, with reference to the notice issued on April 17, 2024 (No.: ETP/001/24), the following risk management arrangements will take effect on the same day after the launch of virtual asset spot ETFs: 1. The uniform margin rate for non-constituent stock categories (Class N) - virtual asset spot ETFs and virtual asset futures ETFs will be set at 30%, and 2. The uniform margin rate for non-constituent stock categories (Class N) - other instruments will remain unchanged (i.e. 12%). Clearing participants should note that their margin rates will be determined based on the uniform margin rate for Class N and its individual margin multipliers. Clearing participants can retrieve the "Daily Participant Margin Multiplier Report" (DWH0081C) from the report search platform to obtain their individual margin multipliers. The above uniform margin rates for non-constituent stock categories (Class N) will be announced on the HKEX website.
7. Grayscale applies to launch a mini version of Ethereum Trust with the stock code "ETH"
According to the Wall Street Journal, Grayscale has applied to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Tuesday to register the "Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust" with the ticker "ETH". According to a regulatory filing, the mini Ethereum Trust will be a "spin-off" of the existing Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETHE). If the fund is approved by regulators, most of the assets of each ETHE investor will automatically be transferred to the new fund, while their total Ethereum positions held through the two funds will remain unchanged.
8. Bitfinex: Bitcoin miners sold part of their reserves before the halving, which effectively dispersed the market selling pressure
According to Cointelegraph, Bitfinex’s latest report pointed out that Bitcoin miners had sold part of their reserves in advance before the halving. This effectively dispersed the market selling pressure and avoided a sharp price drop. At the same time, demand for the newly launched Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States also helped stabilize market sentiment. Reports show that miners have significantly reduced the amount of Bitcoin sent to exchanges in March, indicating that they have planned their sell-offs in advance. Although the market may be affected to some extent in the short term, in the long term, this strategy will help miners adapt to the new environment after the halving. Since the halving, the price of Bitcoin has not fallen sharply, but has increased by about 4.5%, continuing the upward trend. This is due to the adjustment of miners’ strategies and the positive impact of ETF demand on market sentiment. The "large-scale" fund flows of ETFs significantly affect market pricing and are different from the conventional supply and demand framework. Bitfinex expects that after miners’ income decreases, price increases and the expansion of mining operations will compensate for the reduced rewards, and the negative market impact will be temporary. At the same time, the number of Bitcoins purchased by ETF issuers has exceeded the creation of new coins, and market supply is expected to tighten.
9. US SEC seeks public comments on BlackRock's revised Ethereum spot ETF application
According to The Block, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is seeking public comments on the revised version of the Ethereum spot ETF proposed by BlackRock. The SEC requires the public to provide comments within 21 days. BlackRock submitted an application for an Ethereum spot ETF in November 2023. In January of this year, the SEC postponed its decision on the application, and Nasdaq subsequently submitted a revised version on April 19. The revised document discusses the cash creation and redemption process of the Ethereum spot ETF.
10. Payment company Block plans to develop a complete Bitcoin mining system
According to Cointelegraph, Jack Dorsey's payment company Block announced plans to develop a complete Bitcoin mining system to meet the challenges faced by miners. Block said in its latest blog post that it has completed the development of a three-nanometer chip for Bitcoin mining. The company is currently working with a semiconductor foundry to complete the design of the chip. Block said this will bring it closer to its goal of supporting decentralized mining, including providing independent mining chips and its own complete mining system. Jack Dorsey proposed a collaborative approach to decentralized Bitcoin mining in October 2021.
11. Standard Chartered Bank: Ethereum ETF is unlikely to be approved in May
According to CoinDesk, Standard Chartered Bank said in its latest report that it is unlikely to approve an exchange-traded fund (ETF) holding Ethereum (ETH) in May. In addition, the bank reiterated its forecasts for the year-end price targets for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are $150,000 and $8,000, respectively. Despite the negative pressure the market has experienced recently, Standard Chartered believes that the market is ready to resume growth. At the same time, the bank pointed out that the inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs has slowed due to rising macro risks.
12. Crypto.com will postpone its launch plan in South Korea to further communicate with regulators
According to The Block, the cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com announced that it will postpone its launch plan in South Korea to further communicate with local regulators. The plan, originally scheduled to launch on April 29, has now been suspended, and the new launch date has not yet been announced. The decision was made after the Korean Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) visited Crypto.com's office in South Korea after the regulator found some problems when reviewing the anti-money laundering documents submitted by the company. Crypto.com said they will use this opportunity to ensure that Korean regulators understand their comprehensive policies, procedures, systems and controls.
13. Binance’s share of Bitcoin trading outside the U.S. has dropped from 81.3% a year ago to 55.3% now.
According to Bloomberg, according to data from research firm Kaiko, the share of Bitcoin trading on Binance, the world's largest crypto exchange, has fallen from 81.3% to 55.3% over the past year. For small tokens known as altcoins, their trading share has also fallen from 58% to 50.5%. As overseas expansion efforts and changing regulatory policies reshape the competitive landscape of the digital asset industry, Binance's share of Bitcoin trading outside the United States has also changed. Kaiko attributed the changes to Binance's decision to end a promotion that canceled trading fees. "As trading volumes recover and offshore markets become less concentrated, small exchanges are gaining momentum," the company's analysts wrote in a report. Platforms such as Bybit and OKX have expanded their business footprint in regions such as Asia, while Binance has been dealing with the impact of legal issues. The company and its co-founder Zhao Changpeng admitted to violating U.S. anti-money laundering and sanctions regulations in November last year. According to Kaiko, Bybit's share of non-U.S. Bitcoin trading has risen from 2% to 9.3% over the past year. OKX's share is currently 7.3%, up from 3% previously.
14. An address suspected to be Justin Sun transferred 15,389 ETH from Binance again in the early morning, worth $49.79 million
According to the monitoring of on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, the giant whale (suspected to be the address of Justin Sun) who has increased his holdings of 48,875 ETH since April 17 transferred out 15,389 ETH from Binance again seven hours ago, worth $49.79 million. Combined with the information that "Sun Yuchen's associated address transferred out 95 million USDT from JustLend in the past three days", it is suspected that he used this part of the stablecoin to purchase ETH. At present, the giant whale holds a total of 147,442 ETH, with a total value of $476 million, and the average cost of the increased holdings is $3,044.
The article is forwarded from: Jinshi Data
