• Bitcoin ETF requests, miner selling pressure, and regulatory hurdles have created uncertainty around BTC price resistance at $31,000.

    $4.7 billion worth of Bitcoin ( BTC ) monthly options are set to expire on June 30, which could play a decisive role in determining whether the $30,000 price level consolidates as long-term support and opens room for further bullish momentum.

    Why did Bitcoin break through the yearly high?

    Many analysts see Bitcoin’s recent move above $27,000 as a bet on multiple spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) filings, including from BlackRock and ARK Invest.

    The news also raised expectations that Grayscale would be able to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a Bitcoin ETF.

    Bitcoin price capped at $31,000

    On the other hand, Bitcoin bears will try to take advantage of macroeconomic and regulatory headwinds, including the implementation of mandatory Know Your Customer (KYC) procedures by exchanges.

    On June 28, KuCoin announced an upcoming KYC system upgrade to improve compliance with global anti-money laundering regulations.

     

    Additionally, as the network hashrate reaches 400 exahash per second, concerns are growing about the impact of miner selling pressure. Glassnode analytics firm noted that the percentage of BTC revenue sent by miners to exchanges hit an all-time high this past week, totaling $128 million. Curiously, this move mimics the spikes seen during the 2021 bull run when miners took profits.

    Separately, at the European Central Bank forum in Portugal, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned that most policymakers expect two more rate hikes this year. Investors are pricing in an 82% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike on July 26, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

    The last time Bitcoin price touched the $31,000 level was on June 27, but resistance proved stronger than expected. The subsequent pullback to $30,000 supported the argument for short-term sideways trading as investors assessed the impact of additional rate hikes from the Federal Reserve.

     

     

    This restrictive situation in the global economy may explain why some Bitcoin traders decided to take profits, limiting the price gains.

    $4.7 billion out of reach as bulls are overly optimistic

    Open interest for options expiring on June 30 is $4.7 billion, but the actual number will be lower as bulls expect price levels of $32,000 or higher. These traders became overly optimistic after the price of Bitcoin rose 25.5% between June 15 and 23, testing the $31,000 resistance level.

    

    The put-to-call ratio of 0.56 reflects the imbalance between $3.1 million in call (buy) open interest and $1.7 million in put (sell) options.

    But if the Bitcoin price remains around $30,500 at 8:00 AM UTC on June 30, only $630 million of these call (buy) options will be worth anything. The discrepancy occurs because the right to buy Bitcoin at $31,000 or $32,000 is useless if BTC is trading below that level at expiration.

    Bitcoin bears aim below $30,000 to balance the scales

    Below are the four most likely scenarios based on current price action. The number of call (bull) and put (bear) instrument option contracts available on June 30 varies depending on the expiration price. An imbalance in both parties' favor constitutes a theoretical profit.

    • Between $28,000 and $29,000: 7,200 calls and 16,200 puts. Shorts dominate, making $250 million in profits.

    • Between $29,000 and $30,000: 13,000 calls and 12,600 puts. The result is a balance between puts and calls.

    • Between $30,000 and $31,000: 1,500 calls vs. 2,100 puts. The net result favors the bullish instrument by $440 million.

    • Between $31,000 and $32,000: 3,300 calls vs. 800 puts. The net result favors the bullish instrument by $670 million.

    That rough estimate takes into account call options used in bullish bets and put options used in neutral to bearish trades. Even so, the oversimplification ignores more complex investment strategies.

    For example, a trader could sell a put option, effectively gaining positive exposure to Bitcoin above a certain price. Unfortunately, there is no easy way to estimate this effect.

    Therefore, it will depend on whether BTC price shorts are willing to take the risk while the SEC analyzes a potential spot Bitcoin ETF approval.

    While it is impossible to estimate potential inflows or the timing of such an event, this paves the way for bulls to secure $440 million in profits by keeping the Bitcoin price above $30,000 in the near term.