In its latest Twitter thread, Binance invited Cobo founder Shenyu, Matrixport CEO Ge Yuesheng, and veteran miner Li Peicai to discuss the timing of the bull market and events that may become key catalysts.

Binance AMA invites three giants

Last night, Binance invited three cryptocurrency celebrities from China to its latest Twitter space, including Cobo founder Shenyu, Matrixport CEO Ge Yuesheng, and veteran miner Li Peicai. The AMA was hosted by blockchain media person "Wu Says Blockchain" to discuss when the bull market will come and what events may become catalysts to lead the market rebound.

When will the bull market come?

The Bitcoin halving cycle, which occurs every four years, will arrive in April or May next year. As one of the recognized catalysts for the bull market, Cobo founder Shenyu pointed out that there is a good chance that a new round of market conditions will be launched about six months after the halving, but the halving changes this time are less than in previous cycles, and whether it will have a drastic impact remains to be seen. From another perspective, technological innovation in blockchain is also a major point. The current blockchain construction mainly revolves around the expansion and performance improvement of the second-layer network (Layer2). The scheduled launch time of most core main networks is also around Q1 or Q2 in 2024. In addition, the recent ETF application deadlines for traditional institutions such as BlackRock and Fidelity will also be completed in Q1 of 2024. Veteran miner Li Peicai also agrees with Shenyu’s statement. He cited Layer2, DAO, Lightning Network, and Bitcoin spot ETF. If they can all be successfully implemented next year, or create a newer narrative, and the three catalysts basically overlap, it can be inferred that the bull market is likely to arrive around Q1 or Q2 in 2024. However, Matrixport CEO Ge Yuesheng warned that although the next bull market cycle may arrive in the first half of next year, there may generally be a bigger crash before the big market arrives. Historically, the process of bottoming out will make the bottom of the bull market more solid, which may be the last chance to buy at the bottom before the next bull market cycle.

Will SEC regulation have an impact on the industry?

Shenyu believes that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) began to strengthen its supervision at the end of last year, most likely because of the aftershocks of the collapse of the FTX exchange, which is a "compensatory regulation". Rather than banning the cryptocurrency industry, it is more like a deterrent action against the destructive events that have occurred in the cryptocurrency industry in the past year (Luna's collapse, FTX's collapse). "However, the tightening and loosening of supervision is actually a mixed blessing," Shenyu said. In the process of supervision, the SEC actually clearly pointed out that some tokens and core assets such as Bitcoin are "not securities", which means that most investors only need to hold core assets. Li Peicai said that the current blockchain industry is still a mixed bag. Naturally, there are many serious project parties in the industry, but there are also many crooked melons and bad dates. Supervision can effectively regulate this type of project parties and reduce malicious Ponzi schemes. From this perspective, the addition of supervision may not be all bad for the industry. Ge Yuesheng believes that no matter what the final result of SEC regulation is, it will not have much impact on blockchain, because the market is not dominated by the United States, and there are many ways to obtain cryptocurrencies. Even if it cannot be obtained on Nasdaq in the future, it can be obtained through the Hong Kong Stock Exchange or any country/region in the world that accepts cryptocurrencies. He pointed out that the worst result of SEC regulation is that projects that want money from American investors and want to be listed on American exchanges need to be approved by the SEC first.

When will the NFT market turn from bear to bull?

Shenyu believes that the NFT market is a product with a very fast emotional cycle. It is currently in a relatively negative state with underestimated market sentiment. When a red card that can drive the market appears, market sentiment will still be ignited again, but in the long run, finding more application scenarios is still a top priority. In addition, many people have criticized the NFT market for the past two years, with only traditional collectibles and hype surrounding the logic, but NFT has developed many practical applications and landing scenarios, including props in the chain game (GameFi), offline rights and interests of the club, passes, etc., especially in combination with traditional Web2 and membership plans, the effect of user increment can be clearly felt. Shenyu also laughed at himself, saying that he basically didn't sell the NFTs he bought, and they were all returned to zero.