The current market is like this. It goes straight to the point, and after you react, there is basically no market. This has been the case for Bitcoin this year. And those who follow behind will be trapped if they don't withdraw in time. Although it is a short-term trap, it is still uncomfortable enough. There is not much to say at the moment. In fact, the overall situation is clear, but I don't know how to move in the short and medium term. Bitcoin is reasonable above or below 30,000
If you follow the rules, it will go down first and then up, and it will fluctuate in the medium term. So anyway, it is optimistic in the long term, if it is low, it will go up, and it is useless to say anything else. This year's capital gameplay has been re-iterated, and it is not similar to previous years at all, so you can only use the big cycle to exchange for certainty, and the certainty is relatively small in most of the time. There is nothing else to say, just wait for the opportunity to rush at the current stage. In the short term, it is not realistic to chase many coins that have rebounded a lot.
It is better to wait for a mid-term confirmed intervention time. In the short term, I personally think that it is more likely to return to 2.8w, but don't expect a big drop. From the perspective of technical analysis, it is difficult to see a big drop in the current situation.
Will the next bull market be a cold bull market?
To borrow the political terms "Cold War" and "Cold Peace" to describe the crypto market, we are experiencing a cold rebound, and we may experience a cold bull market in the future.
1We are experiencing a cold rebound without money-making effect
Old Money Love Old Coins
EDX Exchange, a newly opened private land for old money on Wall Street in the United States, has launched only four old coins: BTC/ETH/BCH/LTC
But their vigorous rebound belongs to the old money, and most new investors can only watch and cheer.
The L2 governance coins, DeFi governance coins, Web3 game governance coins, and CEX governance coins that we own and cherish have just been cut in half after being hit hard by the SEC, and most of them are still fluctuating at the bottom today.
In the absence of substantial improvement in liquidity, each rebound is a bloodsucking of crypto risk assets by crypto core assets led by BTC.
This rebound is expected to be no exception
2. We may experience a cold bull market without a big wealth effect
The last bull market was the result of positive resonance of the Fed’s monetary policy cycle (rate cut to 0 + QE easing) + the US economic cycle (recession ==> recovery ==> overheating) + Gartner’s emerging technology growth curve (DeFi, NFT enter the mass adoption period) + BTC halving cycle, etc.
At present, the Fed’s monetary policy cycle (two more rate hikes + QT liquidity recovery) + the US economic cycle (overheating ==> mild recession) + Gartner’s emerging technology growth curve (a gap between new narratives) + BTC halving cycle (the halving effect is marginally decreasing).
Under such resonance of various cycles, it is expected that the next bull market may not be as splendid and lively as the previous bull market, and it is very likely that there will not be a wealth effect similar to the previous bull market where DeFi and NFT projects mass-produced millionaires.
Of course, if a black swan event occurs in the second half of 2023 or the first half of 2024, and the Fed sharply cuts interest rates to 0 again + quantitative easing + fiscal spending to release money, it will be a different picture.
3 Personal Trading Strategies in Cold Rally and Cold Bull Market
The cold bull market does not mean the end of the Wild West era in the crypto world, nor does it mean that retail investors no longer have the opportunity to make money.
We just need to slightly adjust our trading thinking, from being keen on exploring alpha income opportunities such as 100x and 10,000x coins, to striving to maintain beta income + compound interest thinking.
Cold rebound and cold bull market mean the decline of volatility, and also the arrival of spring for neutral strategies
We neither go long nor short nor do swing trading. Instead, we stick to the principle of currency standard and strive to accumulate more core assets in the currency circle: BTC, ETH, Uniswap V3 WBTC-WETH LP, GLP, etc.
However, if you think the neutral strategy is dull and boring, you can try the investment direction with positive mathematical expectation, such as playing with money, Web3 game gold, MEV robot arbitrage, BaiU charging MeMe coins or local dogs, etc.
[Why is a slow bull market for BTC the best?] 1- If there is no sharp rise, there will be no sharp fall. If there is no sharp fall, there will be no risk. No risk is the best. 2- If there is no sharp rise, large investors will not reduce their holdings. Of course, there are also those who will reduce their holdings no matter how much it falls, after all, they are a minority. If it rises, there will be more sellers. Not reducing holdings and not causing risks is the best. 3- If there is no sharp rise, there will be no large inflow of funds. In this way, the interests of existing players are actually maximized. In short, no sharp rise is the best, and the risk is not that great if you take it slowly. Of course, those who are anxious to get rich in the crypto circle don’t think so. That’s because of their different positions.
Layout the ZKS ecosystem!
Any hype, preheating, and landing will go through various links in the middle, and what you need to do is to know in advance, enter an ambush, and wait for takeoff. This is why I keep updating the key points. Today I will continue to talk about the fourth key point in the second half of the year - zkSync public chain 2.0 ecology.
Many people know about this project, zkSync. It has been very competitive, especially in the testnet. In order to bet on airdrops, some high-quality products have been charged hundreds of dollars in fees. Currently, most people are still brushing. From the channels I know, it should not be far from the launch. For those who don’t know, let me talk about zkSync here, mainly from the following aspects:
1. Introduction to zkSync, an Ethereum layer 2 expansion solution based on the zk-rollup architecture. It is built on the basis of the zkSyncx protocol and has faster transaction speeds, higher scalability, and more cost-effective features. It is used in multiple fields. At the same time, it has a strong financing background and has completed four rounds of financing. For example, A16Z is currently the most popular public chain
2. zkSync status, 1.0 was launched on the E mainnet in June 2020, and zkSync2.0 was launched in March this year. Simply put, the biggest selling point is compatibility with EVM, and smart contracts can be written in other languages in Ethereum development, attracting more developers and users, and reducing transaction costs.
3. I looked at the competitors of zkSync. There are many competitors. The best developed ones are ARB and OP. In addition, there are Linea, and two projects independently developed by exchanges, Aztec and Scroll. But overall, they are not as good as zkSync.
It can be seen that the current ecology on zkSync is changing. Data deposits are constantly increasing, and the locked-in amount has reached 160 million US dollars, doubling. In addition to the native ecology, other DEFI protocols have also begun to support the zkSync mainnet. I have studied the zkSync ecology for a long time during this period, and its model is indeed good.
It is somewhat similar to the previous ARB ecosystem, such as RNDT, GMX, GNS, MAGIC, etc. At that stage, some projects later ran very well, were listed on Big S, and exploded in a short period of time.
My suggestion is that before zkSync is released, you can look at the ecological projects that have already been released and are running well on zkSync. They will definitely explode in the later stage with the launch of zkSync. At the same time, you should also pay attention to zkSync after it is launched. If you have the ability, it is also a good choice to brush up the accounts or related projects.
