Source: Deribit

Recently, thanks to the good news brought by TradFi, BTC rebounded from the bottom of 24780 to 30000, approaching the high of 31000 in early April. The market's optimism is mainly based on the application submitted by traditional large institutions such as BlackRock for Bitcoin spot ETF, but considering that this is the first trial of TradFi and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) just expressed a negative attitude towards large Crypto exchanges (such as Binance) in early June, whether the application of Bitcoin spot ETF can be passed is another story.

After several days of skyrocketing, the BTC price stabilized around 30,000, market liquidity returned, and the Flow of the options market also performed differently from the previous few days.

Let's talk about implied volatility first. After BTC broke through 30k, the price temporarily stabilized, the actual volatility fell, and the implied volatility of each term also fell. BTC and ETH's ATM IV at the end of the month fell by 9.08% and 7.20% respectively. The next month fell by 4.03% and 3.08% respectively. Except for daily, the entire curve became steeper and returned to the low point of the past year (below 25 percentile)

Source: SignalPlus, Implied Volatility Declines

In terms of trading, the market heat has also declined. The total market transaction of BTC in the past 24 hours is 1.06B, which is about 40% of yesterday's highest point. In the month-end option contracts, a large number of calls around 30,000 can be seen being sold, which has depressed the front-end Vol and Skew. However, there are still a large number of buy calls on Wing in the Deribit forward market, mainly 600 40,000-C and 55,000-C at the end of December. It is worth mentioning that the same 29DEC23-40000-C has a large sale (825) on OKX, which is earlier than the Deribit transaction.

Source: SignalPlus, short- and medium-term skew falls from highs

Source: SignalPlus. IV Curve returns to lower levels

Source: OKX Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade