Don’t say you are tired of seeing the biggest pain point. I am tired of saying it too, but no matter how annoying it is, I have to say it. After all, the biggest pain point is strongly correlated with the prices of BTC and ETH. With the arrival of the fourth week of June, the nominal funds of BTC delivery options on Friday this week have increased to 540 million US dollars, an increase of more than 30 million US dollars in one weekend. It is estimated that the nominal funds will reach more than 600 million US dollars before Friday.

The current maximum pain point of BTC is at $26,000 (Figure 1), and there has been no change. The short-to-long ratio has dropped from 0.71 at the weekend to 0.7, and the change is not large. Although the maximum pain point at the weekend seems lower than the current price, it does not rule out the possibility that the maximum pain point will move up. $26,000 to $26,500 is very likely, after all, the current price is around this range.

Then there is ETH. The nominal funds have reached 260 million US dollars. There is still a chance to rise to 300 million over the weekend. After adding BTC, the overall nominal funds are nearly 900 million US dollars. The current biggest pain point of ETH is 1,700 US dollars (Figure 2), and there is no change. The short-to-long ratio is still maintained at 0.8. Compared with BTC, there are still more friends who are bearish on ETH. Judging from the current price trend, the price difference between BTC and ETH and the biggest pain point is almost 1.5%, and this range is much easier to control.

After all, from the current perspective, there is no clear negative data in the macro sentiment in the past week. What may slightly affect sentiment is the intensive speeches of Fed officials starting from Tuesday, including Powell's hearing in the House of Representatives at 22:00 on Wednesday night. Whether to raise interest rates in July is also a topic of speculation for many investors. We have already talked about this issue at the beginning. Investors hope to speculate on the situation of a July interest rate hike through the Fed's speeches.

Compared with the weekly delivery data, people may pay more attention to the monthly delivery data. After all, even now, the biggest pain point of BTC month-end delivery options is still at 24,500 US dollars, and there are still two weeks left. If there is no adjustment to the biggest pain point this week, it means that the price of BTC will remain at 26,000 US dollars by this Friday, so there is only one week left.

Even if the biggest pain point at the end of the month rises to $25,000, the gap is still $1,000, which is nearly 4%. This is not easy for BTC. However, it should be noted that the June delivery options are not only monthly, but also quarterly and semi-annual. We have seen the price of $24,000 since the beginning of May. The seller has been laying out for so long, so he should have something to rely on. The current short-to-long ratio is still maintained at 0.5, and the nominal funds have exceeded $3.5 billion (Figure 3).

Compared with BTC, ETH’s biggest pain point, which was considered difficult to achieve before early June, now seems to be easier than BTC. The current price is already near the biggest pain point. However, if BTC is to fall by about 4% from the current level, ETH will have to fall by about 2-3% even if it falls less, and it cannot be ruled out that it will fall more.

So I guess #ETH's biggest pain point will also move before the end of the month, but it will move in a different direction from #BTC, and there is a chance that it will move down to $1,650. The current short-to-long ratio is still maintained at 0.52, with almost no change, and the nominal funds are also above $2.1 billion (Figure 4). After adding BTC, the current total nominal funds are already $5.6 billion, and after this week, it is very likely to increase to around $5.8 billion next week, which is already worthy of the funds for delivery in the first half of the year.

We also reviewed it over the weekend, especially

The price of BTC still has strong support at $26,000. Although it has fallen below $26,000 several times since March, it has quickly recovered. In particular, it even fell below $25,000, which is the bottom support in the minds of many investors, but it has returned to above $26,000. Therefore, it is still uncertain whether it can reach the biggest pain point of this month.

This is also the reason why it is strongly recommended not to add leverage to open long and short positions on the biggest pain point. After all, the biggest pain point will float, and even the seller of the option will not know whether a black swan will appear in the market, so it is still necessary to observe carefully.