Yesterday, due to June reasons, the U.S. stock market did not open, and only stock index futures were running. Compared with yesterday, the performance of BTC and ETH was better than that of Nasdaq futures, especially the spike this morning that almost reached 27,100 U.S. dollars. From an optimistic point of view, the price trend has begun to escape the limitation of the biggest pain point in the delivery period of this distant fifth month.
As of now, the biggest pain point of BTC in the fifth week is still 26,000 US dollars. The difference with the spot price has exceeded 3.5%, and there is a possibility of further expansion. Whether it can return to the biggest pain point on Friday is still unknown. The focus is still on the price changes on Thursday. Among them, the hawk king Brad will give a speech at 18:30 Beijing time tonight. Although he is no longer a voting member this year, the recent trend of the Federal Reserve and his expectations have greatly reconciled. Friends who are free can listen to it. At 23:45 in the evening after Brad's speech, there will be a public speech by Williams, a permanent voting member of the Federal Reserve. Judging from his public speeches in the past two months, Williams has also entered the ranks of hawks. Although the market is not optimistic about the continued increase in the Federal Reserve, swap traders believe that July is likely to be the last time the Federal Reserve raises interest rates.
Yesterday we also analyzed the areas of suspending and skipping interest rate hikes, as well as the impact on the market. So if it is skipped, it will have a certain impact on market sentiment. But if there is really no news in July, and no meeting news in August, it is equivalent to there being no interest rate changes for three months. From historical data, when the interest rate is suspended for more than three months, the risk market is almost always on an upward trend.
Although many people think that the correlation between the US stock market and the cryptocurrency market has greatly decreased, and the cryptocurrency market may not necessarily rise with the rise of the US stock market, this is because the price of the cryptocurrency market is limited by liquidity. However, if the US stock market rises very well, the sentiment will be greatly boosted. Even if it is not good for the cryptocurrency market, it will definitely not be bad for the cryptocurrency market, which is better than the decline of the US stock market. The rise of the US stock market will lead to the jump of funds, and the good or bad of BTC and ETH are also trading assets listed on CME, and the market value of both parties cannot be seen in detail in the US stock market. When the RMB market and the stock market deviate significantly, there is a high probability that there will be a rotation of the capital issuance bureau market, so the impact of the rise of the US stock market will inevitably be positive.
After Williams' speech, at 10 p.m. tomorrow night, Fed Chairman Powell will submit his semi-annual report to the National Assembly, and of course he will make a public speech. Powell will surely reiterate his old four points, maintaining the 2% target. Although the target has dropped, it is still relatively high. The Fed has no intention of ending the rate hike and will determine the next rate hike period by observing the data. There is no plan to cut interest rates in 2023. Of course, investors are more concerned about whether there will be a recovery in July. Powell will not give a clear answer, so you have to guess it yourself, especially in combination with the content of his speech. In addition, six Fed officials, including Powell, will make public speeches in the next four weeks.
And four basically know that the biggest pain point of this week is not realistic. If the biggest pain point of this weekend is not realistic, the possibility of the biggest pain point of the month will be greatly reduced, which is definitely a good thing for the currency market, but it did not prevent the price of BTC from falling below $25,000, which also proves that the liquidity of the market has begun to recover, and it is not a minority group that can restrict the price. The unknown and unpredictable market has the motivation to play.
