In addition to specific news related to the crypto field, economic and macro news also greatly influence this market. Therefore, learning about news and macro indicators that will affect the market is quite important that any investor should know, especially for short wave traders. Below is some macroeconomic news everyone should pay attention to
I/ Important economic indicators The most important macro news affecting crypto is information related to the strength of the USD and the FED's interest rate policy. If the dollar weakens and interest rates fall, financial markets will benefit. Therefore, the data that affects the FED's decision to increase or decrease interest rates such as US inflation, the strength of the economy... all affect the cryptocurrency market. The most prominent among them are:
Consumer price index (CPI)
Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an index used to measure price changes of popular goods and services consumed by people in a specific area in a certain period of time. People will rely on CPI data to evaluate the impact of inflation on people's consumption life. Then, based on this data, economic policies will be adjusted to ensure price stability and the economy. Therefore, CPI has a strong impact on the FED's interest rate policy and the Central Bank's decisions.
Level of impact: Large
Announcement time: Usually in the first half of each month
Impact on the market: Results lower than forecast are good, results higher than forecast are bad.
Specifically:
If CPI falls sharply compared to the previous period, or is lower than forecast, it will reduce inflation pressure. From there, the FED can achieve its deflation target early without having to raise interest rates too much, or even lower interest rates. This will cause financial markets to increase in the short term.
If CPI is higher than expected, it could create inflationary pressure, leading to the FED tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates, which would make financial markets difficult.
2. FED's decisions on interest rates
Every year, the FED will have meetings to decide on interest rates and US monetary policy. These decisions will directly impact the strength of the USD as well as the US economy. The FED's actions when deciding interest rates are noticed by the entire financial community around the world.
Level of impact: Large
Announcement time: Usually 8 times per year. Meetings typically take place in the first, third and fourth months of each quarter
Impact on the market: Reducing interest rates is often considered positive news for the financial market in general
Specifically:
When the FED raises interest rates, investors can transition their assets from cryptocurrencies to traditional assets such as stocks or bonds, to take advantage of higher yields. However, if the FED lowers interest rates, investors may look for more profitable investment opportunities in Crypto.
Impact on market psychology: The FED's interest rate decision can create a psychological impact on the cryptocurrency market. If the Fed raises interest rates or expresses concerns about inflation, it could cause fear and uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market, dampening price momentum or even causing a price correction. Conversely, if the Fed lowers interest rates or expresses support for looser monetary policy, it could create optimism and bullish momentum in the cryptocurrency market.
3. Non-Farm Bulletin Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) is a monthly statistical report published by the United States Department of Labor, measuring the number of new jobs created outside the agriculture industry during the previous month there in the United States. NFP is an important indicator to assess the labor market situation and economic situation of the United States.
The NFP bulletin board includes three main indicators: the number of new jobs created, the unemployment rate and average hourly wages.
The NFP bulletin board is usually published at the beginning of the month, is one of the most important economic indicators in the US and has a great influence on global financial markets. It helps investors, fund managers and policymakers assess the situation of the labor market and can make decisions related to investment and risk management
Level of impact: Large
Announcement time: Usually the first Friday of the month
Non-farm news affects crypto:
Nonfarm message boards can create volatility in currency markets, especially the USD. When the Nonfarm message board shows strong growth in employment, it could create a strengthening of the USD and a decrease in the value of cryptocurrencies against the USD. Conversely, when the Nonfarm message board disappoints, the USD can weaken, increasing the value of cryptocurrencies.
4, Gross domestic product (GDP)
GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product, that is, gross domestic product. This is an index used to measure a country's aggregate production during a certain period of time (usually a quarter or a year). GDP is the total value of all products and services produced by businesses, individuals, and within a country, not counting products and services that the country imports from abroad.
GDP can be considered an important indicator of a country's economic strength and is often used to compare with other countries. It can also be used to evaluate the economic situation of a country over time and to manage economic policies.
Normally, GDP will be announced in 3 rounds: Advance, Preliminary and Final. In particular, Advance GDP is announced the earliest and has the greatest impact.
Influence: Great
Announcement time: 30 days after each quarter
Impact on the market: Lower than forecast results are good for crypto and vice versa
How GDP affects the crypto market:
When GDP increases, this indicates economic growth for that country, which can lead to an increase in the value of that country's currency. This causes the USD to grow and in the current context, the FED can rely on this to maintain its tightening interest rate policy. This will make crypto difficult.
If GDP falls or falls short of expectations, this could reduce the value of that country's currency and cause a decline in the cryptocurrency market. This will likely cause the USD to fall and the FED to loosen monetary policy. Thereby, investors can pour money into the crypto market as a way to protect asset values against economic downturns.
5. Producer price index (PPI)
Producer Price Index (PPI) is an index that measures changes in the prices of goods and services produced by companies in a specific region over a certain period of time. The PPI index is often used as a measure to assess pressure on the profits of manufacturing enterprises, and is often considered an indicator accompanying the CPI. Economic policies will be based on PPI, thereby adjusting interest rates to stabilize prices and the economy.
Influence: Great
Announcement time: Usually in the first half of each month
Impact on the market: Lower than forecast results are good for crypto and vice versa
How does the PPI index affect crypto:
When PPI increases better than forecast, it means the economy is growing strongly, which is expected to lead to an increase in the price of the USD. This could cause the crypto market to be negatively affected.
Conversely, if the production index is lower than expected or shows signs of decline, the crypto market value could increase as investors pour money into crypto as a way to protect against the risk of economic recession.
However, the impact of the production index on the crypto market may not be clear and depends on many other factors.
6. FOMC meeting
In addition to the FED's interest rate decisions, usually during the month, the FOMC will have a separate meeting to announce unified policies and comments on the US economy. In these meetings, senior figures from the FED as well as the FOMC will be present and they will give their views on the US economy. These opinions may include comments on cryptocurrency-related issues such as inflation, interest rate policy, or even occasionally legal thoughts on crypto. If this happens, the cryptocurrency market will react.
Remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell
During the FOMC meeting, FED Chairman Jerome Powell will also often give a separate speech. The content of the speech will include views on FED orientation and policies as well as forecasts of FED targets on interest rates, inflation, the US economy... This will cause the cryptocurrency market to fluctuate.
7. Meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB)
In addition to FED decisions, the European Central Bank's (ECB) regular meetings will occasionally have an impact on world financial markets as well as the cryptocurrency market.
Normally, these meetings shape the eurozone's monetary policy. In certain economic contexts (for example, economies facing crisis or war), this event will have a significant impact on the Crypto market.
II/ How to update macro information and indicators fastest
Every time new information is released, the market will fluctuate quite strongly, so updating the information as quickly and accurately as possible is extremely important. There are many ways for you to find tracking "sources", but below are some of the ways I often choose:
Follow on Vnwallstreet. Here, they have detailed information about upcoming economic calendars, and highlight their importance.
Follow on investing.com/economic-calendar. This website also provides a lot of data about economic calendars for you to follow.
Follow the Truflation website, this is a website that statistics important economic indicators such as CPI, etc.
Following some famous community channels, for example, I see that HC Capital updates quickly on macro news. In addition, HC also analyzes the history of how this information has been released and affected the market. again.
Additional notes:
If this news is easy to predict, the price will already run ahead of the news, so it is necessary to combine the general market situation and technical analysis.
When the news is released and the market is familiar with it, it is likely that this news will no longer have too much of an impact.C