Important data this week | Brief analysis of the capital market in the second half of the year. The following are the more important time points
（UTC+8）
6/13 Tuesday 20:30: US May (core) CPI
6/14 Wednesday 20:30: US May (core) PPI
6/15 Thursday 02:00: FOMC interest rate decision, followed by the chairman's speech half an hour later
This week, not only cryptocurrencies are volatile, but global financial markets are also paying attention to major economic data and interest rate decisions this week. The United States, Europe, and Japan will all decide on their interest rate policies this week. Last week, Australia and Canada took the lead in continuing to raise interest rates. Currently, the probability of the United States raising interest rates by one basis point on Thursday is 21.8%. The market is inclined not to raise interest rates this time, and to raise the last basis point in the interest rate decision in July or September to end this round of interest rate hikes.
But everything depends on tomorrow's CPI and the day after tomorrow's PPI, as well as the more important non-farm payrolls report. The Fed's current approach is to wait and see, and in the process of watching, it keeps scaring the market, hoping that the market will cool down automatically. However, once it finds that something is wrong, it will immediately print money, hoping to delay until inflation and unemployment rates return to normal levels.
The good news of the end of the interest rate hike cycle is about to be realized. During this period when the Fed has not yet switched to an easing policy, it is the real test of the real economy. If the previous narrative of stock market rise is to continue, corporate profits must hit a new high, otherwise when the tide recedes, many people will be left without pants.
Under the circumstance that US debt is not as attractive to other countries as before, the US government recently raised the debt ceiling and borrowed money, which will absorb liquidity in the market. At this time, if the expected return of the stock market cannot beat the theoretically zero-risk US debt, funds will inevitably flow out of risky assets.
Opportunities and risks of the cryptocurrency industry in the new environment in 2023:
From the bottom of Bitcoin rebounding to today, the price of Bitcoin is currently around 25,000, but the market of altcoins is not satisfactory. It seems that people are tired of owning
As capital continues to issue coins to suck blood, we as "leeks" seem to have woken up, so Pepe and Ordi, who rely on consensus and concepts, have emerged.
Tokens with a thousand-fold return are coming! BRC20, LTC20, ORC20, everyone's consensus is getting stronger and stronger. They would rather play meme coins like PEPE and various inscription tokens than go to exchanges to take over mainstream coins with capital support. This behavior is a self-revolution of leeks. Don't talk to me about applications, don't talk to me about capital, don't talk to me about prospects. Pulling the market is justice, and the dream rate is the first
Important investment directions in the future
1. Buy new narrative:
Take out a portion of your gambling funds to buy tokens in different fields. It is best if you and your friends have never heard of them. The success rate of this kind of thing is very low, but once the bet is successful, your income may exceed your imagination. Ordi in BRC20 is an example
According to past experience, every new narrative in the cryptocurrency circle will shine in the future bull market, relying on the new narrative to attract new funds and new users, such as the various public chain coins matic, atom, sol, etc., the resonance coin VDS, the metaverse mana, the peak market value of each sector is over 10 billion. No matter what the current ordi is, as long as Bitcoin developers do not resist and reject it, it will shine in the future bull market!
Because this is the first narrative of Bitcoin, it is good for Bitcoin and miners. If the congestion problem is solved, this is a perfect investment target.
2. Buy compliance
Compliance can be determined by SEC. At least the security tokens mentioned in it cannot be bought. According to incomplete statistics, they are
SOL, ADA, MATIC, FIL, ATOM, SAND, MANA, ALGO, AXS, COTI, etc. Currently, 67 currencies are known, and more will be announced later. It is still unknown how this matter will be finalized, but I personally think it is very possible to clean up the currencies, because the currency circle does not need so many currencies and so many concepts. I will not talk about which POWs there are, you all know, if you want to invest for a long time but think that new concepts
Track currencies worth betting on
1.DYDX
dYdX is one of the earliest perpetual DEXs launched in DeFi. Currently, dYdX's daily trading volume still exceeds the sum of all other competitors, so after Binance's collapse, dydx's performance is also second to none among many DEXs.
2.LayerZero
I won’t say much about LayerZero. My dog knows it. It is the largest cross-chain interoperability protocol currently available. It can realize cross-chain applications through blockchain light nodes.
Amount raised: $263 million
3. star
Stelo is a browser plugin that helps protect crypto assets from Web3 phishing attacks by performing predictive risk assessments and providing an easy-to-read interface. Web3 is a dark forest full of dangers, and newcomers need protocols like Stelo.
4.zksync
Everyone is very familiar with zkSync, one of the most popular L2, which increases Ethereum’s TPS while ensuring Ethereum’s security
Amount raised: US$45.8 million
5.GFI
Goldfinch is a decentralized credit platform, but the difference is that Goldfinch provides loans based on real-world physical collateral, which is the recently popular RWA. As the narrative of RWAs becomes more and more popular, GFI will definitely attract more attention from big funds.
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