Non-farm payroll data week, will the data reinforce Powell's statement that he will not raise interest rates for the time being? Bitcoin Tests Key Support Level!
Hi, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Uncle Cat’s encrypted world.
As of the time of publication, the price of Bitcoin is around 69,300. Bitcoin has once again fallen significantly on Monday, and this time the decline is accompanied by a collective decline in the copycat market, causing a slight panic in the market sentiment.
The intraday decline caused Bitcoin to fall to a key support level. Is this a tentative correction for Bitcoin or will it fall below the support and enter a daily level correction?
This week’s non-agricultural data release week, Uncle Mao expects that this week’s non-agricultural data may consolidate last week’s statement that Powell will not cut interest rates for the time being. The current expectation of an interest rate cut in June has dropped to about 50%, and the interest rate cut in 2024 The range has fallen below 75 basis points. What does the Fed’s recent emphasis on not raising interest rates mean?
Bitcoin disk analysis:
Bitcoin never broke through the pressure level brought by the weekly line during last week's rebound, and the trading volume last week was obviously declining, and the same is true today on Monday. Coincidentally, the Federal Reserve data supports the theme that there will be no downward trend in the short term. In addition, the rate cut this year has been reduced to less than 70 basis points, and the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond has increased, causing the risk market to also be sucked. The crazy rise in the gold market has more or less robbed the crypto market of funds.
Bitcoin is also the beginning of April on Monday, and it did not get off to a good start. It is currently falling back. However, the good news is that the support below moves up and becomes stronger. The space for short-term price declines is limited. The bad news is that once the key support falls, If it breaks, the situation may be ugly.
The current resistance levels for the short-term upward rebound are 70,000, the middle line of the 4-hour Bollinger Band, 71,500, the upper line of the 4-hour Bollinger Band, and 73,500, several pressures above the daily Bollinger Band. The weekly resistance level that has been blocking Bitcoin's rebound last week has reached around 74,000.
During the current short-term decline of Bitcoin, many people are worried about a major correction. Let’s take a look at the support situation and the mechanism for punishing a major correction.
The first support, 68,000, is a short-term support with slightly stronger support strength. This support is provided by the middle line of the daily Bollinger Band. Obviously, in the current price fall, the middle line position of the daily line has become a support that will be tested.
The second support, 67,300, is short-term support. The support strength is weak. This support is provided by the 4-hour EMA200. The support strength is weak. It is a buffer for short-term decline and cannot be used as a strong support.
The third support, 65,600, is a short-term support with strong support strength. This support is effectively supported by the weekly EMA7 and the monthly Bollinger Band. The support strength is the strongest support in the short term.
Many people are worried about a larger correction, a daily correction, the deepest of which is reaching the lower Bollinger Band level of around 62,800. The mechanism that triggers a daily correction is breaking below the first support. Once the first support is broken, there is room for the price to fall to the bottom of the daily Bollinger Band.
However, there is a core monthly support during the daily level correction. Yes, the monthly Bollinger Band of Bitcoin that we have been concerned about before is online. After this week's update, the data reached around 65,600. The strength of this support is relatively strong and it is the strongest support in the short term. Once the price falls below, the downward space may not be as simple as the daily level correction. And once it falls below this support, this position will form a strong resistance level. Everyone has seen the weekly level resistance level last week, which directly blocked Bitcoin's several rebound breakthroughs.
Now, once the monthly level falls below, the downside risk increases and the pressure for rebound increases, which may not be a good thing in the short term. Of course, once it falls below, it does not necessarily mean that there will be a large-scale correction. After that, you still need to pay attention to the changing technical aspects every day.
It should be noted that the Bollinger Bands at the daily level are gradually oscillating and shrinking. On the eve of the contraction and breakthrough, if the price can stabilize the Bollinger Bands on the upper track, it will be more conducive to the subsequent price rebound.
The RSI relative strength index is currently at its lowest around 44, and there are still signals of continued decline. Once the RSI index accelerates its decline and hits the oversold range, it will be beneficial for the stability of the short-term market.
Market dynamics and capital changes: Compare data changes from last Friday
(The data is real-time data. If there are major changes in the short-term market, the data will be significantly biased)
The current total market value is 2.702 trillion, a decrease of 72 billion compared to last Friday.
The market value of Bitcoin is 134.6 billion, which is 25.7 billion less than last Friday.
The market value of Ethereum is 417.2 billion, a decrease of 5 billion in market value compared to last Friday.
The total market value decreased by 72 billion, Bitcoin and Ethereum decreased by 30.7 billion, and the remainder was the 41.3 billion market value drop of the copycat.
Bitcoin’s market share is 49.8%, an increase of 20 basis points compared to last Friday. Ethereum’s share is 15.3%, which remains unchanged compared to last Friday. Altcoins’ share is 34.9%, a decrease of 20 basis points compared to yesterday.
In terms of transaction volume:
The total transaction volume was 116 billion, an increase of 17.1 billion compared with last Friday.
Bitcoin 35.4 billion, an increase of 8.7 billion compared to last Friday,
Ethereum is 16.2 billion, an increase of 3.24 billion compared to last Friday.
The total transaction volume of Shanzhai was 64.4 billion, an increase of 5.16 billion compared to last Friday.
Funding:
The total funds on the market are 151.1 billion, an increase of 100 million compared with last Friday, and the proportion of funds is 5.59%, which is an increase of 15 basis points compared with last Friday.
USDT: Market value is 104.4 billion US dollars, a decrease of US$100 million compared to last Friday, with transaction volume of 56.6 billion, an increase of 0.05%.
USDC: Market value 32.36 billion, a decrease of US$90 million compared to last Friday, with transaction volume of 6.7 billion, an increase of 15%
Judging from market dynamics, today is actually not optimistic. The decline of Bitcoin has led to a decrease in market value. However, the main force of this decline is not Bitcoin and Ethereum, but copycats. The market value of copycats has declined in large areas, and trading sentiment has decreased. After Bitcoin rebounded several times last week to no avail, the market's confidence is obviously lacking.
In terms of trading volume, the increase in trading volume during the downward trend proves that there are also many buy orders during the decline. The current market sentiment is a long-short game, but there are obviously more people leaving the market than buying.
In terms of funds, compared with last Friday, the market retained funds increased by 100 million. Over-the-counter funds experienced net outflows for the first time this year. Compared with the US market, the outflow of funds last Friday was 190 million. In other words, there were 290 million outflows from the market today. , 100 million retained, 190 million left directly. At the same time, attention has been paid to the increase in the trading volume of stable coins, which also shows that the activity of funds has increased, and many retail investors have begun to buy or sell.
The above is the market data of this Monday. Although it is not as optimistic as the technical aspects, I think we should not be blindly pessimistic yet. The flow of funds does also represent the short-term decline of traders’ confidence. Of course, it is also because of the U.S. debt and gold markets. Yes, in the environment where the United States does not cut interest rates, the risk market is indeed short of funds, and the scarce funds will be frequently transferred to other trading scenarios.
However, this is the data for this Monday. We don’t need to worry too much. In the first week of April, Bitcoin does not need to be very eye-catching. As long as the data gradually improves every day this week, it is a good progress. After all, there are still 20 days left before the halving. Moreover, the core technical support has not fallen below.
Tomorrow we will continue to collect data for comparison.
Macroeconomics and news:
This week is the week for the release of non-agricultural data. We talked about this topic last week. Last week, Powell’s remarks that he did not consider cutting interest rates for the time being have been supported by GDP and inflation data. So if this week’s employment data continues to bring If there is effective data support, then the Fed really has reason to reduce its interest rate cut later this year and reduce the scope of this year's interest rate cut.
Many people may be curious as to why the Fed made dovish remarks earlier this year and now it has become relatively hawkish. Its core lies in one thing - inducement.
Previous dovish remarks have led to good market expectations for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates as soon as possible this year and to cut interest rates by a larger margin. The world believes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates as soon as possible, which has led to countries preparing to cut interest rates. Switzerland was too proactive and directly announced an interest rate cut. Switzerland's interest rate cut directly led to strong global expectations for interest rate cuts in developed countries, causing a large number of currencies to weaken against the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar continued to maintain its strong ability to attract global gold.
Immediately afterwards, economic, inflation, and employment data were used to once again emphasize the consolidation of expectations of no interest rate cuts for the time being and strengthen the strong position of the US dollar. Before, I was saying that the U.S. manufacturing industry was a weak point. Now, looking at Monday’s purchasing data, the manufacturing industry may also be able to recover depending on the data.
Well, the core of the Fed's emphasis on not cutting interest rates for the time being is that the strategic goals have not been achieved and preparations have not been done well, so it manipulates data and macro-adjusts global market expectations for the United States. The Fed does have reasons not to cut interest rates until there is no need for a crisis.
However, whether to cut interest rates now really depends on whether American companies and the banking industry can withstand it. Under the current high interest rates, many companies are using layoffs to maintain their profitability. If interest rates continue to be high, the debt crisis of corporate banks will will be revealed gradually.
If we say that the debt crisis, which has grown to 34.5 trillion yuan, will not break out for a long time, the thunderstorms of small-scale enterprises and banks may trigger a financial crisis, which will lead to the outbreak of the market crisis. This is possible.
Once the Fed starts to cut interest rates, it will be under tremendous internal and external pressure. The Fed's delay in cutting interest rates is also expected to question the current leadership of Biden, and the next Trump, who is currently the most likely to win, may help The Federal Reserve gave the U.S. economy a landing. This may be an important factor in what the Fed wants.
The United States has been slow to cut interest rates, but in fact, there are no fewer crises. At present, the United States has many potential risks in debt, whether it is corporate, bank, or government debt, which has attracted widespread attention from investors. One issue that everyone may have overlooked is that the recent strong rise in gold prices is mainly due to the increase in risk aversion. On the other hand, it also means that people have less confidence in holding US dollar assets, resulting in a large number of gold purchases to avoid financial risks. This has led to the gold price frequently hitting new historical highs.
Let’s make a brief prediction. This week’s large and small non-farm payroll data, especially the large non-farm payroll data, may show that the U.S. labor market is still strong and continue to consolidate the rhetoric of not raising interest rates.
In the crypto market, one of the recent focuses of attention is Binance’s announcement of its board of directors structure and personnel, which means that Binance will announce the location of its headquarters in the near future.
After the new CEO of Binance took office last year, he announced that he would establish a relatively traditional corporate structure, including the board of directors, and also announced the company's headquarters. Now that the list of the board of directors has come out, the headquarters feels that it will be announced at the Dubai conference this month. There is a high probability that it will be announced. It's Dubai.
On the one hand, congratulations to Binance for its transformation from a decentralized approach to a centralized one. A truly down-to-earth management approach may be more conducive to the development and rule-making of the crypto market at the current stage.
Market summary:
Regarding the current support for Bitcoin's another decline and the collective market correction, all we can do now is wait and see.
For futures traders, short selling is not recommended at the moment. The core support is moving upwards, the support is strong, and there is no trend of falling below it, so short selling at support may be an unwise choice. On the contrary, going long at strong support may be more powerful. Of course, the best option is to wait and see.
After all, although the market response brought about by the technical aspect is relatively optimistic, the data aspect is not very optimistic.
As for the current decline of Bitcoin and the collective correction of the market, all we can do now is to wait and see.
For contract traders, short selling is not recommended at the moment. The core support is moving upwards, the support is strong, and there is no trend of falling below it, so short selling at support may be an unwise choice. On the contrary, going long at strong support may be more powerful. Of course, the best option is to wait and see.
After all, although the technical aspect is optimistic, the data is not very optimistic. There is a net outflow of funds for the first time this year. Under this premise, we need to continue to pay attention to Tuesday’s data. Once Tuesday’s data improves, then the later market trend will be better.
Before the Bitcoin halving took place, there were no obvious negative or even major negative factors.
As for the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates for the time being, the market had already received this result last week and was waiting for the data to be released. This expectation was once again consolidated and deepened, which in turn had a smaller impact on the market.
However, we have to admit that the current strength of the gold market is indeed effectively robbing market funds. I hope this situation will not last too long. At present, many traders still have sufficient confidence in Bitcoin.
In terms of spot goods, no matter whether you are full or not full, it is best to wait for now. Wait and see what happens. On the optimistic side, the data is not so optimistic. There is a net outflow of funds for the first time this year. Under this premise, we need to continue to pay attention to Tuesday's data. Once Tuesday's data improves, the later market trend will be better.
Before the Bitcoin halving took place, there were actually no obvious negative or even major negative factors.
As for the Federal Reserve's decision not to cut interest rates for the time being, the market had already received this result last week and was waiting for the data to be released. This expectation was once again consolidated and deepened, which in turn had a smaller impact on the market.
However, we have to admit that the current strength of the gold market is indeed effectively robbing market funds. I hope this situation will not last too long. At present, many traders still have sufficient confidence in Bitcoin.
In terms of spot goods, no matter whether you are full or not full, it is best to wait for now. Wait and see what happens.
Finally, thank you all for paying attention to Uncle Cat and thank you for your continued support.
