Friends who pay attention to finance must have smelled something unusual. In recent days, major domestic banks have lowered deposit interest rates by 5-20bp, which is 0.05%-0.2%. 0.05% may seem like a small amount, but if you know that ICBC’s current interest rate has dropped from 0.25% to 0.2%, a 20% drop, you won’t realize how serious it is.
In addition, the interest rates on large-denomination certificates of deposits of major domestic banks have also been generally lowered. Last year, they were all over 3%. This year, at first glance, they are all back to less than 3%. Judging from the current macro situation, economic policies will not directly reduce banks' savings costs for no reason, thereby increasing the interest fees and profits of the banking industry. So if my prediction is good, the most likely follow-up operation should be that LPR, which has not been moved for a long time, should fluctuate downward on the 20th of this month.
I won’t say much about the related auxiliary signals. Regardless of which sector, the domestic recession data is relatively obvious. According to the historical trajectory, whenever this happens, it means that new stimulus policies are coming. The domestic economic situation just reflects the global macro environment. You can imagine that even the world’s most stable second largest economy is like this. How much pressure does the Western world face?
Back to the market, in the past two days, except for BNB and a number of tokens accused by the SEC as securities, which have a clear downward trend, core assets such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have basically remained in a relatively narrow range of fluctuations. Here is a popular logic for everyone. To put it simply, the coins that have raised funds through ICO before may become the target of prosecution in the future. TRX has been in litigation for three years because of this.
Judging from various sources, the impact of this round of prosecution on the industry is relatively limited. As for Binance itself, the biggest impact is on Binance.us. CZ's strong response also proves that it has the strength to stand up to the SEC. It should be noted that this prosecution is only one of the 17 prosecutions in history.
In the current state of uncertainty and volatility, and the wave of certainty of interest rate cuts in the future, how should we operate our assets? At least for the core part of Bitcoin, I am very clear that I will not move next year. I still think that Ethereum will give a wave of opportunities to rise before falling below the current low. As for the cottage, the reduction or even liquidation of positions in the middle and late stages of this round will be the first priority.
According to current news, the interest rate hike in June will basically stagnate for a short time, and there is a possibility of a 25 basis point rate hike in July. In any case, the US debt ceiling is equivalent to a 25 basis point rate hike, and everyone has seen the negative impact. In the next month of great volatility, it is still difficult to have unexpected market conditions, so we are still in a relatively stable market range with a little panic in the short term.
After a wave of long and short positions, the market contract positions have returned to an ultra-low level. As a value investor, I have always believed that no matter how the market moves, its trend is correct, it depends on how we grasp it.
BTC: After the big cake returned to 26,000 points, the trend changed from sideways to oscillation. The four-hour high point of the large volume is currently around 27,000 points, and the short-term bottom support is 25,800 points. The market game has shifted from contract positions to the current spot chip competition. In the short-term retracement and upward testing market, watch more and do less, there is nothing to do.
ETH: Ethereum supports 1840 points. This wave of negative news is almost over. Next week will be a high volatility period and there is no good operation point for the time being.
LTC: There are less than two months until the halving on August 5, and the strength level is acceptable in the previous wave. I personally put the time for reducing positions around 50 days before the halving, which means it is expected to start in two weeks. It is not suitable to chase the rise at present, and I have held it for so long, so I just need to wait for the chips to be released.
