In the past year, everyone has been betting on the super trend of Ether, but the cycle of Ether has not yet arrived;

People like me who don't chase high prices will also use the exchange rate of Ether and the pie to make up for the increase in Ether, so the risk is relatively low;

So here comes the question that many people are concerned about: when will the bull market cycle of Ether arrive?

Everyone has been speculating on this issue for a whole year. The line drawing school, the data school, and the metaphysics school have all taken turns. Anyone who has been in the currency circle for a long time will think that ether will definitely make up for the increase this time, but it has backfired. So far, Ether still follows the big pie and has not gone out of the independent market;

There are four situations to judge when ether can move independently:

1: The ETF funds of the big pie have entered a sluggish stage, and large funds have nothing to speculate on, so they can only switch to Ether, because other targets cannot temporarily accommodate too much funds;

2: The application for Ethereum’s ETF is approved, which is equivalent to the approval of Big Pie’s ETF;

Three: Ether has carried out a wave of super liquidation, clearing out the current leveraged funds that have increased at the Ethereum level;

Four: A phenomenal track suddenly appeared in the Ethereum ecosystem, similar to the DeFi and NFT tracks during the last bull market;

Which of these four situations is more likely to occur? What is the corresponding independent market strength of ether after each situation occurs? My point is as follows:

Probability ranking: 1 > 3 > 4 > 2;

Independent market strength ranking: 4 > 2 > 3 > 1