2024.3.29 Macro Analysis

Good morning, brothers, BTC is falling and looking like it will break through the previous high again. There is an opportunity amid danger.

Because today is a day of tribulation

If you pass the tribulation, your fortune will rise sharply and you will smile.

If it fails, it will endanger MMP.

A pullback to $68,000-65,000 is possible

As I said yesterday, 3 major events were squeezed into the same day.

The First Tribulation: Huge BTC Options Delivery

Quarterly option delivery is worth US$9.45 billion, with the biggest pain point of $50,000. Because it is too different from the current price, it has little impact. However, the delivery of options will cause many uninformed novices to panic and lead to market crashes. There is no substantial negative. But it’s emotionally negative

The second calamity: PCE data release

PCE data will be released at 8:30 tonight, with an expected 2.8%. If it is too much higher than expected, it will be negative. As inflation is actually high, it is not suitable to cut interest rates too quickly. On the contrary, if it is not much higher than expected, it will not be a big problem.

The third calamity: Powell’s speech

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will deliver a speech at 11:30 tomorrow night. If he continues to insist on cutting interest rates three times this year, the currency circle will rise.

If the attitude changes, then U.S. stocks and the currency circle will fall, and interest rates will most likely be cut three times, so don't panic.

In addition to overcoming the tribulation, there are currently two good news coming from the data on the chain.

(1) There was a large outflow of BTC from the exchange yesterday, with Coinbase outflowing more than 10,000 BTC.

(2) There was a net inflow of spot ETF funds, and the outflow of Grayscale GBTC decreased by 50%. #BTC