Written by: DUO NINE⚡YCC
Compiled by: Deep Wave TechFlow
The next Bitcoin halving is less than a month away, and Bitcoin’s recent pullback is trying to scare you. Whales know this game very well and they will pump in the hope that you will dump your tokens.
Don't be fooled! Hold on and don't let them scare you.
As the bull market continues, more people will try to get their hands on the cheap tokens you hold. You still have about a year to make money. Don't sell too early!
The countdown to the halving has begun. Everyone is preparing for a massive rally after the halving. Those selling before April 20, 2024 are vulnerable to being swayed. You never sell before the halving. What you want to do is prepare for a huge rally!
I bought more altcoins during the last dip and some of them have gone up over 50%!
Based on past cycles, Bitcoin has generally been rising roughly a year and a half after the halving.
Surprisingly, in this cycle, Bitcoin broke through the old historical high price for the first time before the halving! I've written a lot about this in previous posts. Click here to read it which will help you develop an exit plan.
However, this leaves us with a dilemma...
Where should we start regarding the huge rally that’s coming?
Bitcoin ETF approved in January 2024?
Breaking through $69,000 in early March 2024 (old all-time high price)?
Halving in April 2024?
This is important because each of these assumptions will impact when you should take profits and exit this market. What is certain is that this cycle is different and it is accelerating!
Take a look at the chart below. Notice how the time between ATH and ATH breakout shortens. 1,176 days, then 1,085 days, and most recently 840 days. The reason why the latter is the shortest is because BTC set a new record shortly after the ETF was approved and before the halving!
Bitcoin always peaks 10 to 11 months after the price breaks out of an old all-time high. Therefore, I would prefer to set our starting point at $69,000 in March 2024 and calculate 10 months from there. If things stay the same, this will lead to Bitcoin peaking between December 2024 and January 2025.
Waiting a year and a half after the April 2024 halving may not be a wise bet. If this cycle keeps up this pace, I expect we will be in a bear market by the summer or fall of 2025. That's because price moves faster, not slower!
The most promising prediction is the one shown below using the 2016 to 2017 rally as a baseline (red). Once the current price deviates from this baseline, we will know if this cycle is faster or slower. So far, we are at a similar pace as before, or faster, depending on how the March and April candles will close. The exit cycle on the chart is between October 2024 and March 2025. This is exactly the target using our assumptions above.
There will be a correction to the huge rally. Use these opportunities to rebalance your portfolio and maximize your exposure to strong-performing coins, like I have done over the past two weeks.
I also looked at the data and compared it to the past two bull runs, and it showed that Bitcoin was down an average of 21% on the pullbacks in this bull run.
2016-2017 Bull Market: -37% Average Retracement
2020-2021 Bull Market: -33% Average Retracement
2023-2024 Bull Market: Average pullback so far 21%
If Bitcoin drops 20%, that would be an immediate buying opportunity, at least for the next few months. By the end of 2024, I will no longer risk buying the dip. Also note that the magnitude of the bear market corrections in each cycle shrinks over time:
2018-2019 Bear Market: 84% Retracement
2021-2022 Bear Market: 77% Retracement
2025-2026 Bear Market: How much of a correction will it take???
Another way to know if you are taking profits at the right time is if Coinbase sets a new record in trading volume. If the quarterly trading volume exceeds $150 billion, you are taking profits at the right time. The data in the chart below shows that the current trading volume is gradually increasing.
Finally, don’t let the whales fool you! They will do whatever they can to scare you and get the Bitcoin you sold. Both during a correction and during the next bear market. Never lose faith in Bitcoin, it has proven everyone wrong over the past 15 years.
Trends are your friend and Bitcoin is your best friend in cryptocurrency casinos.
