Original title: "Bottom-hunting and top-fleeing indicator 2: CEX inflow and outflow" Original author: Riyue Xiaochu When a certain token flows into a centralized trading platform in large quantities, it is likely to be a selling behavior, and the opposite is true for withdrawals. Many times it has great power, and the logic and principles look simple, but it must be noted: 1) The data needs to be combined with the overall market environment and the rise and fall of the currency. If you only see a large inflow, you think it will fall, and the error rate is relatively high. 2) It is more powerful when used in specific situations. For example, a certain coin has already risen a lot, the market fomo sentiment is high, but there is a continuous large inflow on the trading platform, then the probability of the top is very high. 3) Beware that sometimes the main force deliberately releases smoke bombs. For example, a coin has fallen a lot and is oscillating at the bottom. At this time, a large amount of inflows appear on the trading platform. It may be that the dealer rushed into the trading platform in advance before pulling the market. 1. Analysis of the proportion of cex's trading volume If you want to use this indicator, the proportion of cex's trading volume is a prerequisite. If all transactions of a coin are on the chain, it is meaningless to study the data of the centralized trading platform. Generally speaking, 1) for newer coins, the transaction volume on dex accounts for a larger proportion. 2) after listing on Binance, Binance accounts for a large proportion of the transaction volume. 3) if you don't know, you can check the transaction share on coinmarketcap. For example, before listing on Binance, PEPE had the largest transaction volume on Uniswap. But after listing on Binance, it is mainly on Binance. 4) If there is no Binance, you also need to be careful of some second-tier trading platforms, which will use robots to increase the volume, resulting in a "false" high share. 2. Case Analysis 2.1 ssv SSV has experienced a surge this year. In the red digital box 1) the trading platform has withdrawn a large amount of cash, and the corresponding currency price is at the bottom. After a period of fluctuation, this surge has begun. 2) The trading platform has recharged a large amount, and SSV has adjusted from $21 to $16. 3) The trading platform has recharged a large amount, and SSV has adjusted from $33 to $27. 4) The trading platform has recharged a large amount, and the currency price has begun to fall all the way. Why is the red box 2 just adjusted? So it should be combined with the overall environment. At that time, BTC started to rise, and the altcoins were all rising one after another. Then LSD became a hot track. The red box 3 has reached the top area, and the increase is already quite large.To be honest, there was no way to be sure at that time. SSV did not flow into the trading platform in large quantities at the highest point, indicating that the dealer did not rush in at the highest point (because this is undoubtedly a famous brand telling the market). But after 2) and 3) a large amount of recharge, it has obviously entered the top area. If it is not sold at the top, then it must be exited at around $40 in the red box 4. Because there is a large amount of inflow into the trading platform again, and the time is approaching the Shanghai upgrade, the good news will be realized immediately. And at that time, other cottages were also falling. 2.2 Magic's Magic rushed into the trading platform, where the red boxes 1 3 4 correspond to the decline in the green coin price. Red box 2 is a special case, which is a huge unlocking of magic. The other situations at that time were that the overall market conditions were very good, and the cottages were all soaring. Magic did not have a big increase. So there was no big drop this time. 2.3 PEPE shows the inflow and outflow of watechers on the trading platform. Green represents inflow. The green column is higher than the red column, which means net inflow. The peak signal of PEPE is also very obvious. The price of the currency reached its highest point on May 6. In the previous few days, it was basically net inflow. And in the following few days, most of them were net inflow. Therefore, it can be judged that the price of PEPE has reached the top, not a deep adjustment. The price of the currency has also fallen all the way since then. 2.4 STG's token balance on Binance 14 found that the STG balance of the trading platform was falling all the way during the decline, indicating that funds were constantly buying in the decline of STG. Until December 17, the STG in the Binance wallet reached the lowest, and the price of STG in the same period was also the lowest locally, and after a few days of adjustment, it began to rise. 3. Data source Finally, I recommend several websites that can view the inflow and outflow of trading platforms. 1. watchers https://watchers.pro/user/referral?referralcode=fLjhuIHL Check the inflow and outflow of a certain coin. The free version can be used. Now after logging in with the wallet + Twitter authentication, you can get a 14-day membership version. I suggest you try other functions. 2. glassnode glassnode.com You must be a paid member. And most of the tokens are old coins. Those who are already members can use it, but newcomers are not recommended to pay for it.3. Blockchain browser https://blockscan.com/ Advantages: it supports all public chains and is free. Disadvantages: it can only view individual addresses (such as Binance wallet 14, etc.). 4. Jiedata https://jiedata.com/ Jiedata is used to view inflows and outflows from the perspective of the trading platform, and can be used to set alarm reminders. Jiedata is currently in the free stage. Original link