2013 Rate cut and balance sheet expansion, bullish currency market
2014-2015 Rate hike and balance sheet reduction, bearish
2016-2017 Rate hike and balance sheet reduction, bullish (the only stubborn one)
2018 Rate hike and balance sheet reduction, bearish
2019 Stop rate hike and balance sheet reduction, start rate cut and balance sheet expansion, bullish
2020-2021 Rate cut and balance sheet expansion, bullish 2022 to date Rate hike and balance sheet reduction, bearish
Except for 2016-2017, the currency market has always followed the Fed's policies. In 2016-2017, the real economy developed well.
If there is no major innovation in the real economy to start a new Kondratieff cycle, it is estimated that the currency market will still be linked to the Fed's policies.
It is estimated that the market will not pick up until the rate hike and balance sheet reduction are stopped.
