What is non-farm payrolls?

Non-agricultural refers to the statistics of job changes outside of agriculture, mainly reflecting the development and growth of manufacturing and service industries. The higher the non-agricultural data, the higher the production demand of enterprises, the stronger the economy, which is good for the US dollar and bad for non-US dollars.

Related data: PMI manufacturing services final value, ADP employment population small non-agricultural, JOLTS job vacancies, etc.

What is the unemployment rate?

As the name suggests, it is the ratio of the unemployed to the working population, an indicator reflecting the unemployment situation, used to judge the impact of labor market supply and demand and economic cycle, and is also an important indicator reflecting the economy.

The rising unemployment rate means weakened demand, weakened consumption, unfavorable economy, bearish for the US dollar and bullish for non-US economies.

Related data: Initial unemployment claims, employment status

Tonight's non-agricultural data market expectations

Employment: Previous value +253,000, expected +190,000 Announced value ?

Unemployment rate: Previous value 3.4%, expected 3.5%, announced value?

24 investment banks expect the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls for May to be released at 20:30 tonight.

Pansen Macro: +125,000; JPMorgan Chase: +150,000; ABN AMRO: +150,000; Morgan Stanley: +170,000;

Goldman Sachs: +175,000; Standard Chartered: +175,000; DBS: +175,000; UBS: +185,000;

BNP Paribas: +190,000; ING: +195,000; HSBC Holdings: +195,000; Lloyds Bank: +195,000;

Capital Economics: +200,000; Credit Suisse: +200,000; Wells Fargo: +200,000; Barclays: +200,000;

Citigroup: +200,000; Bank of America Merrill Lynch: +200,000; Commerzbank: +200,000; TD Securities: +210,000;

Moody’s Analytics: +215,000; Scotiabank: +225,000; Mizuho Securities: +230,000; Nomura Securities: +235,000.

A total of 24 institutions and banks conducted statistics, and 8 expected it to be below 190,000, while the rest were above 190,000, which is positive for the US dollar and negative for non-US dollars.

Non-agricultural market fluctuations in the past year

Lan Chen’s opinion: Tonight’s data is likely to be around 190,000. If it is lower than 190,000, it will be a big positive, and there will be another strong rise.

Judging from the final value of PMI manufacturing services, ADP non-farm employment, and JOLTS job vacancies, the probability of it being greater than 190,000 is relatively high.

Therefore, tonight's data greater than 190,000 is good for the US dollar, and the probability of bad news for non-US dollars is relatively high. A small negative market situation stimulates a correction, but it did not break the 1850-1830 range, and it is still dominated by low longs. At present, the overall long structure has not stabilized. Both long and short positions have opportunities. It depends on whether the non-farm data can break the current situation.

To sum up, these are just my personal opinions. I would like to remind everyone again to pay attention to risk control. It is generally recommended to participate with a light position after the data comes out. This method has relatively less risk.