5.22 Trends and Operations

森ge有温度 · 2023-05-22T14:24:24.000Z

The pie has been fluctuating for another day, and it still hasn’t gotten out of the central shock range. For the time being, we can only wait. In this kind of market situation, retail investors actually have no way to make money. The fluctuations are not big, and it is good if they are not stopped back and forth. Judging from the market trend, it should be about to start falling, because the shock time has been relatively sufficient, but the price has not yet stabilized at 27200, but it is really difficult to know when it will fall before it falls. You can grind for another day, two days, or even a week. In terms of operation, it is still recommended to go short at a low multiple for the time being. Some people say that it is not good for me to go short at a high multiple. I can only say that it is unsafe. After all, there has not been a very obvious unilateral downward trend in the short term. The current weekly trend is still The line level is in the early stages of decline, so the price is easy to fluctuate. Can you hold on to the high multiple? It’s already settled that you won’t be liquidated. On the other hand, I am really not sure whether I will be given the opportunity to go above 28,000 in the future, so if the multiple is low, you can increase the position later. If the multiple is high, let alone increase the position on the rebound. If the rebound occurs, whether your order can be safely overnight is a question.

The big cake has been fluctuating for another day, and it still hasn't moved out of the central oscillation range. For the time being, we can only wait. In this market, retail investors actually can't make money. The fluctuation is not big, and it's good enough if they are not stopped back and forth.
 
Judging from the market trend, it should be about to start falling, because the time for shock is relatively sufficient, but the price has not yet stabilized at 27,200. However, before it falls, it is really difficult to know when it will fall. It may take another day, two days, or even a week.
 
In terms of operation, it is recommended to short at a low multiple. Some people ask, can I short at a high multiple? I can only say that it is unsafe. After all, there is no obvious unilateral downward trend in the short term. It is still in the early stage of the weekly decline, so the price is likely to fluctuate back and forth. Can you hold your high multiple? It is good enough that you don’t get liquidated. Another thing is that it is not sure whether there will be another opportunity to go above 28,000 in the future. So you can add positions later if you have a low multiple. If you have a high multiple, don’t say you can add positions after a rebound. It is a problem whether your orders can be safely held overnight after a rebound.
 
Of course, the high and low leverage I'm talking about here are not the leverage you are using, but the actual leverage including the position. For example, if you currently have a 100x leverage, but you only have 1% of your account as a margin, then your actual leverage is 100*1%=1x leverage, so even if you use a 100x leverage, the actual leverage is only 1x, so you are using a low leverage.
At the daily level, the old view is still that the price will reach around 22,500 by the end of the month or early June. If the daily MACD does not form a golden cross, it can be temporarily understood as a short-term fluctuation or decline. Only when a golden cross appears can there be a small rebound. Another thing is that the weekly MACD is about to form a death cross. As long as it falls and cannot rebound quickly this week, it can lock in a death cross. This can be observed and regarded as a bearish signal.
At the 4h level, the structure is still like this for the time being, building a 4h level running center, and then the fifth 4h level decline, it depends on whether it can go down smoothly this week, if it can't go down, then continue to see shocks. At present, it is really difficult to determine whether the 4h rebound is over. If it can't break through 27300, it can end. If it breaks through, continue to look at around 28000.
At the 1h level, the structure is not very clear. For the time being, we see a new 1h level rebound. On the upside, we still need to see whether the pressure in the 27300~27500 range can be broken.
At the 15-minute level, there may be a third 15-minute level rebound here. Let's see if 27,300 can be broken through. If it breaks through, there will be a chance to go above 27,500. If it fails to break through, it will still oscillate within the center.
From the perspective of Ethereum, it seems that there is a 1h level rebound here, so temporarily treat it as a central oscillation. Since it is a central oscillation, it is still possible to go to around 1850 in the future. Unless it breaks down directly tonight or tomorrow.
Daily level: Downward direction, looking around 22500
4-hour level: The direction is upward, see if it can break through 27,300. If it breaks through, there is a chance to go to around 28,000
1 hour level: The direction is upward, and there is a possibility of a rebound at the 1h level, with the upper pressure in the range of 27000~27300
15-minute level: The direction is upward. Pay attention to where the current 15-minute level can go.