Author: Riyue Xiaochu
Several important data to help you make decisions about the future market
1) From BTC 38,000 to date, the total market value of stablecoins has increased by $11 billion. Last week, there was a significant increase in the issuance of stablecoins, with an additional $3.7 billion.
2) Since March 6, the main force behind BTC's rally has shifted to Asian funds. US funds are showing signs of retreat, and BTC has fallen by 15% in the US time zone, which is not a good sign.
3) ETFs have a total inflow of US$9.5 billion, so the inflow of stablecoins still exceeds the inflow of ETFs, and is the biggest driving force for the rise of the entire cryptocurrency market. However, ETFs can only buy BTC, so ETF funds have a more dominant position in the rise of BTC.
4) In terms of BTC major holders, the number of addresses with more than 1,000 began to drop by 50 places in the past week, while the number of addresses with more than 100 increased by 86 places.
1 Analysis of the total market value of stablecoins
From the perspective of the total market value of stablecoins, here are some data
At the lowest point of this round of market, which was September 10, 2023, the total market value of stablecoins was 121 billion US dollars.
The lowest point after the ETF was approved was BTC adjusted to 38,500, which was January 23, 24. The total market value of stablecoins was 128.3 billion US dollars.
Last Monday, the total market value of stablecoins was $135.6 billion
On Monday, the total market value of stablecoins was $139.3 billion.
In other words, the last round of market reached the lowest point after the ETF was approved, and the stablecoins issued a total of 7.3 billion US dollars. In the past month, the stablecoins have issued an additional 11 billion US dollars, with a significant increase last week, with an additional issuance of 3.7 billion US dollars.
For the mainstream stablecoins USDT and USDC, since September 10, 2023, USDT has increased from 82.9 billion to 102 billion US dollars, with an increase of 19.1 billion US dollars. USDC has increased from 26.1 billion US dollars to 30.2 billion US dollars, an increase of 3.9 billion US dollars. This is a real theme of USDT's increase in issuance.
2 Altcoin total market value analysis
In the above figure, a) black represents the total market value of cryptocurrencies, b) green represents the total market value of cryptocurrencies after excluding BTC and ETH, and c) orange represents the total market value of USDT. From the above figure, we can intuitively see:
1) Since the bottom in September 2023, the total market value of BTC+ETH has significantly increased compared to other altcoins, and has exceeded that in most cases. So, first of all, congratulations to those who hold large positions in BTC and ETH. Secondly, if your current earnings are not as good as BTC and ETH, don’t doubt yourself. Don’t look at the people who are promoting themselves to make dozens of times more money, but the actual overall earnings of altcoins lag behind BTC and ETH.
2) When we observe the increase in USDT market value, it is obviously increasing at a slower rate than that of cryptocurrencies. This is due to two reasons: 1) ETF funds and Coinbase-based USD funds are also like this; 2) The more the market rises, the more people in the market adopt the strategy of holding positions. Therefore, a large amount of funds is not needed to pull the market up.
3 ETF Data Analysis
According to ETF data, as of March 8, ETFs hold a net asset of BTC of 55 billion U.S. dollars. The cumulative net inflow is 9.5 billion U.S. dollars. In contrast, the issuance of stablecoins is 11 billion U.S. dollars. Therefore, the inflow of funds from stablecoins still exceeds the inflow of funds from ETFs, and is the biggest driving force for the rise of the cryptocurrency market. However, we know that the funds of ETFs are only used to buy BTC. The funds of stablecoins also include other altcoins. Therefore, the funds of ETFs are more dominant in the rise of BTC.
From the above relationship between price and ETF net inflow, it can be clearly seen that the price of ETF is highly coupled with that of BTC. Around January 20, when there was a net outflow, BTC was in a state of falling and bottoming out. When there was a net inflow, BTC was in an upward state. In other words, the US ETF funds dominate the price factors of BTC.
4 Trends of US and Asian funds
In the past month, we can see the contribution of various time zones to the rise of BTC. At the beginning, the US time zone has always been in the leading position, that is, the US is the biggest driving force for BTC to rise, and the contribution of Asian funds to BTC is relatively small. However, starting from March 6, US funds showed signs of withdrawal, and BTC fell by 15% in the US time zone. The main force of the rise has become Asian funds.
And from the cumulative perspective of the past month, the contribution of Asian funds to the rise of BTC has far exceeded that of the United States. Historically, the sustainability of Asian funds is not long, so this may not be a good signal.
5 BTC Big Holder Data Analysis
Over the past month, the stock of BTC in exchanges has been in a declining stage, from 2.363 million to 2.28 million, with a net outflow of 83,000. At the same time, the number of large holders holding more than 10,000 BTC has decreased by 1, the number of large holders holding more than 1,000 BTC has decreased by 9, and the number of large holders holding 100 BTC has increased by 190. Therefore, the net outflow of BTC exchanges is basically for large holders holding about 100. According to the data of the past week, the stock of BTC in exchanges has continued to decline, while the number of large holders holding more than 10,000 BTC has not changed. The number of large holders holding 1,000 BTC has dropped significantly, with an overall decrease of about 50, while the number of large holders holding 100 BTC has increased by about 80.
