Forecasting market macro trends

1. There is a high probability that the CPI will fall in May and June, because the year-on-year comparison is with May and June last year. June last year was the high point of inflation, so there is a high probability that the CPI will fall in May and June.

2. Regarding the U.S. debt issue, I still believe that an agreement will be reached at the nearest moment. I predict two outcomes.

An agreement is reached: the debt will increase by several trillion dollars, and the market will have a good trend.

Reaching an agreement a few days after a debt default will cause violent market fluctuations, and some risk institutions may even collapse, bringing about a deeper impact on the market environment.

3. There is a high probability that there will be no further interest rate hikes in June. Combined with the previous point, after the CPI data drops, there will basically be no more interest rate hikes in June. The most important question at present is how long the high interest rate will last.

Cancun upgrades core

EIP-4844 introduces a new transaction type, Blob, which moves transaction data to a new temporary blob storage to provide cheap storage costs and does not need to be permanently stored.

Before this, L2 would periodically store some data on the L1 main chain, which would consume a lot of fees. After the Cancun upgrade, L2 transactions will be stored in blobs, which are similar to the "external storage space" of Ethereum L1, with cheaper storage costs and larger space. The core of the Cancun upgrade is to reduce storage costs. In short, the cost is low and the potential is great!

Cancun upgrades are on track with BTC halving

There is no specific time given for the Cancun upgrade, but it will probably be in the second half of 2023, and the next halving of BTC will be on May 9, 2024. The halving expectation is often hyped in advance, which coincides with the time of the Cancun upgrade in the second half of the year. A new round of reshuffle may be coming.

Op and Arb alone have been killing it in the public chain market. Arb's TVL is second only to Tron and BSC. Op is weaker than Arb, but it has also squeezed into the top 6, ahead of the last round of star public faces Avax, FTM, Sol, etc.

After the Cancun upgrade in the second half of the year, the competitive advantage of ETH L2 will increase by another order of magnitude. Non-ETH public chains will become increasingly difficult, and most of them will be eliminated by the market.

In short, the Cancun upgrade will be an important milestone in the development of Ethereum. It will further enhance the performance, security and scalability of the Ethereum network and provide better services for more applications.

In addition to ETH itself, there are 5 investment opportunities worth investing in Cancun

No.1: L2 leader - Arb and Op are the two L2s with the largest TVL and users. They have sufficient first-mover advantage and legitimacy, and have a certain ecological moat. They are the core targets of the Cancun upgrade.

No.2: Leading applications - GMX, RDNT, Magic, Velo, SnxGMX, RDNT, Magic are Arb series, Velo, Snx are op series, and they have obtained corresponding L2 support respectively. The outbreak of L2 will also drive the outbreak of its ecology.

No.3: L2 alternative - Polygon. Polygon is a side chain with its own independent consensus, and is not considered L2, but Polygon has several ZK Layer2 solutions, including Polygon ZKEVM. Polygon is equivalent to shifting from the public chain market to embracing ETH L2, and has strong technical strength and market driving force.

No.4: zkRollup application projects - LRC and IMX. Currently, zkRollup has not issued any coins. LRC and IMX are the sectors that are easier to hype in ZK L2.

No.5: Optimism fork - Boba and Metis lack legitimacy, but their performance is similar, the ecosystem is weaker, the odds are higher, and they are the last section of the Cancun upgrade.

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