LTC is at the bull-bear dividing point. When LTC is 100 days away from production reduction, it can always surge rapidly. It is worth noting that compared with the production reduction market of BTC, LTC is the number one altcoin, and the strength of LTC will often drive the overall rise of small coin altcoins. The recent fluctuations have been violent, the differences between long and short have increased, and BTC is approaching the 120-day bull-bear dividing line. The mainstream has rebounded from oversold conditions and entered a volatile trend. Hot spots are repairing and building a bottom. Wait patiently for the opportunity to make up for the increase in spot prices.

About sea upgrade to unlock pledge. Many people are worried that Shanghai's upgrade to unlock staking will cause Ethereum to crash. The actual inflow is greater than the outflow. Recently, the annualized rate of Etherum staking has reached a record high: 8.6%. This rate of return is simply amazing. In addition, Ethereum will usher in major changes in the upcoming Cancun upgrade, which will increase the speed and reduce the cost of Ethereum Layer 2. Ethereum is still worth looking forward to this year. When the time is right, you can speculate on the BTC/ETH exchange rate.

2. Is the market situation in the second half of the year still worth looking forward to?

There is still no consensus between the two parties in the United States on raising the debt ceiling. It should be noted that since the debt ceiling mechanism was adopted in 1937, the ceiling has been raised 108 times, so it is still extremely difficult to continue raising it this time to deal with the crisis. High probability event, but this does not mean that the market will completely price based on the non-occurrence of the crisis, which means that if the default crisis can be successfully resolved, it will actually be a benefit.

I have analyzed it many times before. Under normal circumstances, the probability of falling sharply below 26,000 to around 20,000 is very low. We have given two prices of 26,500 and 2,750 that can be bought and flattened. The copycat is also in the process of covering up three times. If you have a full position, although the black swan will appear and you will be significantly locked up, in terms of trading, it is not worth betting on an event with a very small probability, and you can just take reasonable precautions.

Therefore, this time for bets on high-probability events, we will reduce the leverage to 1x or hold spot stocks. Even if a black swan occurs, it will not cause substantial losses, let alone liquidation. The overall view continues The previous conclusion is that the market has yet to see its final rise. Many positive developments, the exchange rate recovery of altcoins, and the topping of this year’s bull market are still worth looking forward to.

3. When the bull market starts or is about to start, speculate in the new rather than the old!

Today’s small rebound can be seen that the rebound amplitude of Edu, which has just been launched, > Arb Id Rdnt. In the rebound in April, the rebound amplitude of Arb Id Rdnt, which has just been launched, is also quite good! Be sure to remember: In this circle, when the bull market starts or is about to start, speculate on the new rather than the old! Don’t buy any currency that is more than 3 years old (including Bitcoin and Ethereum). The bull market is a waste of your time and capital!

After April 2024, do not buy Bitcoin, because 90% of coins can outperform Bitcoin. Of course, if you know some technology and choose a good new popular copycat sector target, you do not need to buy Ethereum, because These coins are also well positioned to outperform Ethereum. In the next round, Bitcoin will not rise more than 10 times, and Ethereum will not rise more than 20 times. New/sub-new coins with low market capitalization and popular sectors will definitely increase by more than 20 times, 50 times or even 100 times.

This experience is not suitable for large investors, but for small and medium-sized investors. If you are a large investor, I still think you can properly allocate Bitcoin and Ethereum. This way you will have enough time and depth when escaping from the top.

4. Which new coins are currently on the market that are worthy of our long-term ambush?

As a long-term choice, it must be a 50-50 split between old and new currencies. I have studied a lot of old currencies before. You can read the previous articles. Today I will mainly analyze the new coins that have been launched recently.

1.ARB

Arb is an Optimistic Rollup Layer-2 on Ethereum that is actively attracting Ethereum’s protocol, users, and liquidity

Why are you optimistic?

Arbitrum allocates 122.8m ARB to their ecosystem projects to kick-start their attraction flywheel

ARB is now the fastest growing Layer-2, with the number of daily transactions exceeding the base layer of ETH

Ecosystem incentives will continue to increase users, activity and liquidity

No investors/teams unlocked until 2024

EIP-4844 is the biggest upcoming catalyst

technical analysis

ARB is the beta of ETH, so you must be optimistic about ETH to be optimistic about ARB

Currently showing strong strength relative to BTC/ETH, but it remains to be seen if it can maintain

There is strong demand for 1.1 below, but ultimately relies on the collapse of ETH/BTC – until EIP-4844

2.EDU

As one of Binance’s strategies, education is Binance’s focus. It can expand the user base of web3. Binance will definitely be deeply involved, and there should be some opportunities to make money.

What are the characteristics of EDU?

Some of the features and benefits of the EDU token include: It enables educators to create and monetize their own courses, books, podcasts, and other educational content on the Open Campus platform

It allows students to access a wide range of high-quality and affordable learning resources from a variety of sources and disciplines

It rewards educators and students for their contribution and participation in the open campus ecosystem

Why are you optimistic?

It uses blockchain technology to build a variety of application scenarios in the education industry and is in line with the development of the blockchain technology era. Its goal is to create a globally influential open source community through community, developers and technological innovation. In a word, it is to use blockchain technology to change the shortcomings of the education industry and create a new education ecosystem. The project seizes the hot spot of the education industry to model the blockchain. In terms of direction, I personally think it is a good entry point.

3.SUI

Public chain is a narrative that will be hyped in every bull market

At present, it is difficult to see the research value from apt, but as two projects in the same move language department, using apt as the anchor target to study SUI still has a certain role.

Judging from the current overall user experience of sui, transactions are smooth, handling fees are low, and sui will have greater support for native projects in the ecosystem than apt. Likewise...

It is also an excellent new public chain with relatively large imagination space for capital-firm platforms, but SUI’s current ecological development will still take a certain amount of time.

Fundamentals, market narrative hot spots, K-lines, time cycles, and position management superimposed on the transaction level are also slowly coming together. The integration of knowledge and action, and serious practice. "Information is valuable, the interpretation of information, and the operations after interpretation are more valuable."