Bank of America said the three past periods when the Fed paused raising interest rates (2000-01, 2006-07, 2018-19) had different impacts on the dollar. But they all have a common feature, that is, the dollar will depreciate initially (between the last interest rate increase and the first time the interest rate is kept unchanged), and the subsequent trend will be very different. The U.S. dollar’s valuation is elevated at the end of the Fed’s rate hike cycle, but a pause in rate hikes by itself shouldn’t mean dollar weakness. (Golden Ten)
