The October CPI data of the United States was released, and the macroeconomic situation was positive. Recently, the CPI fell more than expected for the first time, and the core CPI was also falling.

The unadjusted CPI in the United States rose 7.7% year-on-year in October, expected to rise 8%, and the previous value rose 8.2%; the unadjusted core CPI rose 6.3% year-on-year, expected to rise 6.5%, and the previous value rose 6.6%.

The decline was mainly due to the decline in commodity prices except food and energy, the unexpected decline in health care, and the slowdown in rent growth on a month-on-month basis.

The short-term interest rate hike slowdown game is over, and the December interest rate hike of 50 basis points is a foregone conclusion. The interest rate meeting after December will be on January 31, 23, and the end point of this round of interest rate hikes may be around 5%.

But we cannot be overly optimistic. It is expected to remain around 7% before the end of the year. Yesterday, the US stock market rose a bit too much. If inflation continues to hover around 5% in the first half of next year, the Federal Reserve will have to continue to raise interest rates.