I guess, for people obsessed with short-term trading - nicknamed "paper tape worms" (Note: traders who always keep an eye on the quotation tape to make small swings.) Original author: Crypto Xiaochuan

  • For these traders, over-specialization is a major reason for their mistakes - over-specialization means rigidity and is therefore costly. After all, the game of speculation is not just mathematics or a set of rules, no matter how precise those main rules are. When I look at the market, I also need something other than arithmetic, and there will be something I call stock behavior. Stock behavior can help you judge whether the stock will continue to move along the historical trajectory you have observed and recorded. If a stock is not performing well, don't touch it. If you can't accurately judge what went wrong, you can't infer which direction the stock will move. Without judgment, there is no inference; without inference, there is no profit. This is a very old knowledge, observing the behavior of stocks and studying their past performance.

Let me share my personal understanding:

Livermore always emphasized the word "right path". So what is the right path? What is the standard?

  • Right path, first of all, according to experience (history will repeat itself), stock movement has a specific movement path, and a specific path must have a specific reference. For example, from Beijing to Shanghai, there are a certain number of stations in the middle, and under normal circumstances, the time is also certain. The so-called right path means that the form of the path must be right, and the details in the middle must also be right. The details in the middle of the path must be right, which is the standard.

  • Take platform breakthrough as an example. The first half of the path for true and false breakthroughs are the same, and both will reach the top of the platform. What are the details? Simply speaking, it is the volume. A little more complicated is the structure of the small cycle, whether it is a driving wave or an adjustment wave, and whether there is a divergence? A more complicated one can look at the larger trend structure, time cycle and spatial amplitude. #BTC #ETH #crypto2023 #Web3 #区块链