The latest US inflation indicator CPI will be released next Wednesday. The previous value of CPI was 5%, and the expected value was 5%; the previous value of core CPI was 5.6%, and the expected value was 5.4%. Last month, CPI dropped from 6% to 5%, and core CPI rose from 5.5% to 5.6%. This week, we had an interest rate meeting, and the interest rate was raised to 5.25%, which is higher than the CPI of 5.0%. I hope that CPI will drop below 5% next week.

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After the Ethereum Shanghai upgrade, the net amount of pledged ETH was positive, reaching 97,586 ETH, worth about $189 million. The Ethereum Foundation address "0xd864" transferred 15,000 ETH to the address marked as "Kraken 5" (crypto platform). Currently, this Ethereum Foundation address holds 320,272.41 ETH. Since May, Bitcoin on-chain fees have shown a sharp upward trend, with BTC fees reaching 134.97 BTC yesterday. ETH fees reached 2,123.43 ETH yesterday. 14,766.13 ETH were destroyed in the past 24 hours. Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin miners' fee income has reached 12.4%, and compared with the rebound in 2019, the proportion of fees to total income has exceeded the peak in 2019. The U.S. federal government said it will focus on digital identity infrastructure and distributed ledger technologies, which are increasingly affecting a range of key economic sectors. The list also includes biotechnology, artificial intelligence and semiconductors.

The fourth largest newspaper in the UK, the London Evening Standard, issued an NFT of the coronation of King Charles of the United Kingdom, which is available for free on the NFT market Nifty Gateay. There are currently about 12,462 Bitcoin BRC-20 related tokens, with a total market value of $221,894,005 and a trading volume of $4,698,428 in the past 24 hours. The BRC-20 protocol is written directly to the Bitcoin network and uses Satoshi as the carrier. Anonymous trader Dimethyltryptamine.eth bought 5.907 trillion PEPE tokens at a price of $263 on April 14, sold some of the tokens for $3.8 million, and currently holds about $9 million in PEPE, with a return of nearly 50,000 times. A lucky address that made about $7.5 million on SHIB bought 6 MEME coins after more than a year of dormancy. Sui development team Mysten Labs said that 15 game partners will launch games on the Sui blockchain starting May 15.

Since the merger, the circulation of Ethereum has decreased by more than 166,000, and the current 7-day annualized deflation rate is 1.05%. American economist Jeremy Siegel said: The threshold for the Fed to raise interest rates again is high; the Fed's actions no longer lag behind the yield curve; the Fed has completed its mission; the Fed is expected to cut interest rates before the end of the year. The Texas House Committee promotes a digital currency backed by gold to trade and pay with this digital currency and allow them to execute redemptions of the gold that supports it. Bob Ras, co-founder of Sologenic: More and more people expect that the Federal Reserve will relax monetary policy and effectively inject more liquidity into the market to support the financial system. BTC is ahead in this situation, indicating that it will actually return to relatively low interest rates in the future. BTC may rise to $40,000 by the end of this year. There is evidence that more and more people and institutions are accumulating Bitcoin at low points, which actually translates into a supply shock.

Tonight, Buffett held the 2023 shareholders' meeting. The 93-year-old man is shorting the US economy, saying that "the good days are over." Buffett has not mentioned Bitcoin yet. He often satirized Bitcoin at press conferences in the past. As early as 2014, he regarded Bitcoin as rat poison. At that time, Bitcoin was 100 or 200 US dollars. The crypto circle does not have Buffett's brains, and does not need to be so "high-rise". A small interest rate cut and a small fluctuation are enough. There is no difference between a fluctuation of 100 US dollars and 30,000 US dollars for Buffett, but it is very different for crypto people. When interest rates fall, the cryptocurrency circle is full.

The focus is still on the inflation indicator CPI next Wednesday. The turning point of the Fed is inflation, and the turning point of the market is the Fed. There is no evidence of further interest rate hikes, but the market is looking for evidence for interest rate cuts. The inflation indicator CPI is the most intuitive reference, which determines whether the first interest rate cut will be in July or September. Hawkish Bullard believes that: economic growth is slow, the labor market is weak, inflation will fall, and the Fed can still achieve a soft landing of the economy. Recession should not be taken as the basic situation. He supports raising interest rates. Fed's Goolsbee said: The situation in the banking industry must make you think twice, and it is too early to expect a rate hike in June.

The earliest there will be a rate cut is two months away, which is not very rational; the latest there will be a rate cut is four months away, which is rational. The old man knows that many people are depressed because they are fully invested. Regarding position management, the old man’s principle is that for the aggressive type, he will start to build a spot position when the interest rate is raised by 75 basis points, and when the interest rate is stopped, he will have a 40% position, mainly for aggressive profit; for the conservative type, he will start to enter the market with a 40% position after the interest rate is suspended, mainly for safety. The old man is now in the second stage, and the spot position is 60% before the interest rate is cut. Depressed, he did it all in one step and directly fully invested. When the old man bought again in the second stage, some people might be cutting their losses. The goal is to cross the bull and bear markets. Those who fully invested in advance may make more profits, but they may also have a mental breakdown at all times and be irrational.

For the old man, the remaining time is not very important. The goal is to reduce interest rates + bull market. The interest rate hike has been suspended, and the interest rate reduction is not far away. There is only a little time left in the big cake cycle. #BTC #crypto2023 #ETH #Binance #Web3