At present, the market is still a game of stock funds. The market momentum is insufficient, the landlords have no surplus, and there is not much residual funds. Therefore, the market is so flat and Hillary is normal. It is estimated that it will still maintain a range of 10% above and below 30,000 US dollars. In this range, quantitative investment may make a little money. As for other things, it is difficult to have room for operation. It is expected that the fluctuation time will be about 1 month. There will be changes before the meeting in June.

Four days ago, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell revealed the expectation of interest rate cuts, but also emphasized the importance of controlling inflation. Lowering the US inflation rate to 2% is the long-term goal of the Federal Reserve. Powell said, "We no longer say we 'expect' additional rate hikes." But he also emphasized that the Federal Reserve meeting has not yet made a clear decision on whether to stop raising interest rates, and the Federal Reserve will discuss this issue at the June meeting.

In fact, #Powell's words have already shown that there are still many uncertainties in the future of the market. The bubble will burst sooner or later, either by the market or by the hands behind the scenes. Under the manipulation of the Federal Reserve, if it is burst, it can help you get back on your horse, but it can also draw its bow and shoot you off your horse. This is the ability of the Federal Reserve.

The global economy depends on one sentence from Powell. When he says the words "plus and minus", they are the two true words that determine the lives of billions of people around the world.

Therefore, at this moment, for those who do spot trading, there will be extremely high uncertainty in the next one or two months. As mentioned before, the price-performance ratio of BTC above $30,000 is not high, and the advice is not to operate (referring to long positions).

As the market has come to this day, although the macro environment in 2023 is different from that in 2019, the market trend of#ETHis extremely similar to that in 2019. At present, there is an upward pin-shaped action. This is the monthly line. The pin-shaped situation appeared in April. If a new positive line cannot be closed upward in May, that is, this month, then in the two months at this position, accompanied by the unlocking of Ethereum, the dealer has actually sold a large number of chips.

This is certain. Combined with the huge amount of chips that are trapped in this position range in 2022, there is huge pressure to go directly upward in this range. Because the overall market size has increased, the market will definitely not fluctuate as violently as it did in 2019, but the general trend should be similar.

Of course, if the Fed cuts interest rates quickly, then the above assumption will be on shaky ground.

In the macro direction, the premise of everything still depends on the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. To put it bluntly, those who have money are the boss. Once the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates, there will be more liquidity in the market. With more money, everything will rise, even garbage. It's that simple.

May

Why is May a critical month? Because there are two major positive factors in June. The expectation of positive factors can provide strong support for the market and the logic of rising prices.

Positive 1: Hong Kong’s digital currency-related policies are implemented

After the Hong Kong Web3 Conference did not have any outstanding performance, everyone discovered the rules of the cryptocurrency circle. All good news will only be realized in advance, just like CFX was realized 1-2 months in advance, and this time is probably no exception.

The only difference is that the implementation of Hong Kong policies is not a single time point like the web3 conference. The policies will be composed of a series of linear small events, such as a certain firm obtaining a license, which large banks have officially announced their participation, and what project has cooperated with Hong Kong. These small events make up the overall expectations of the Hong Kong sector.

What unique impact does this attribute have? We can foresee that as relevant information continues to be released, a new wave of small climax will be reached at some point around June, and then after no new developments, it will return to cooling down again.

Note that it is before and after, not necessarily before, so the best time to layout can be now, or it can be when the wind gradually gets stronger, giving us enough time and there is stamina.

what can we do about it?

We can get a glimpse of which projects in the Hong Kong sector are reliable from this round of performance, such as CFX and ACH, which have a higher consensus, and platforms that are likely to obtain licenses, such as OKB. Other small projects will suddenly soar and are difficult to catch. It is better for everyone to focus on reliable projects, build positions on dips, and sell at highs.

Positive 2 Ethereum Cancun Upgrade

The upgrade was originally scheduled for the end of May, but Ethereum’s upper echelons were more conservative and changed it to a vague statement of “later this year,” which immediately raised the expectations and made everyone less excited.

Do you think this is a bad thing? I don’t think so. The later period may be from June to December, which is exactly the narrative vacuum period, so that the story will not be finished so quickly and land slowly, which is more suitable for this year’s cryptocurrency circle.

The direct benefit of this upgrade is the L2 track. As for which projects they are, I believe you are more familiar with them than I am. We have mentioned them more than once.

The key question is, since they have already risen once, will they still give us the opportunity to get on board?

From a negative perspective, the negative impact of L2 is relatively limited. After the Cancun upgrade, there will only be positive impacts. So it may not be a bad idea to start slowly getting on board now. The real negative impact is only on Bitcoin.

What stage is Bitcoin at?

BTC on-chain activity has hit a new high, and the [halving] narrative is about to begin. In addition to BRC20's opportunities, who else has them?

1. Miners When block rewards are no longer available, transaction fees will become the only income for miners, and the new NFT boom of bTC will bring new growth for miners.

2. The increase in BTC second-layer on-chain transaction activities will stimulate demand for BTC second-layer networks, which is good for STX.

 

3. BTC itself

A good opportunity to lay out medium and long-term plans in the second half of the year

Based on the above statement, the second half of the year is a good opportunity for us to actively plan. Every time the Bitcoin halving comes, the low point appears in 10-17 months. It can be seen that the low point has passed. It is impossible to return to 15,000 in the second half of the year. It is highly likely that it will stay above 25,000. The low point that can really get on the train may appear at any time.

As long as the mainstream currencies remain stable, there will still be a hundred schools of thought contending, giving us ample opportunities to make money. It will then depend on who works harder.

In short, don't be too pessimistic, keep paying attention to the circle, actively explore, and start making money. When the big drop comes, know which hot currencies to buy, and you will definitely reap the rewards.

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