Value investing is dancing with the market makers. The price of BRC20 is driven by retail investors, such as buying local dogs, memes, and ownerless coins. They are playing with the consensus of retail investors. It seems that the latter is even more confused. Everyone says that when institutions did not enter the market a few years ago, the market was fairer, retail investors in the primary market could still participate, and retail investors in the secondary market could still make money. Now these retail investors have no chance.

Many of the newly released BRC-20 are unowned coins. People think this is fairer and an opportunity for retail investors. If it is short-term speculation, it is the consensus of the concept, which seems more difficult to analyze. At present, the gas for minting in the primary market is already very high, and the better coins have been minted. From a medium- to short-term perspective, it is no longer suitable to enter the market. I only hold a little ordi. If this thing finally succeeds, the income should be good.

I have missed the very early opportunities of BRC20. The size of funds and the current gas fees do not allow me to mint the remaining tokens or continue to buy leading ones such as Ordi. All I can do is to increase my sensitivity to new things, hoping to encounter the next such opportunity. And continue to analyze projects, take a longer time, and ambush the hot narrative of Ethereum upgrades for medium- and long-term investment.

The cryptocurrency world is changing with each passing day, but the opportunities left for retail investors are getting fewer and fewer. I hope that the cryptocurrency world will still have a good benefit effect, that the next bull market will have a good increase, that the analysis of project-style ambush hot spot narratives will still have good investment returns, and that retail investors can still make a lot of money in this market.

Brief analysis: BTC second layer RIF, STX

It has been mentioned many times that the second layer of Bitcoin will be deployed. With the maturity and prosperity of Ethereum L2, BTC, as the native cryptocurrency, will definitely not miss such a big narrative hype. I believe that the second layer ecology of BTC will become more and more abundant. Let us witness the next bull market together!

RIF

Market value: 100 million Maximum supply: 1 billion Circulation rate: 94%

RIF is an infrastructure network built on top of RSK, which is equivalent to the second-layer network of RSK. It provides the deployment of smart contracts and decentralized dapps on Bitcoin. You can think of it as the op of the second layer of Ethereum.

STX

Market Cap: 1 billion Max Supply: 1.8 billion Circulation Rate: 75% Stacks is an independent blockchain based on the Bitcoin blockchain, founded in 2013 by Muneeb Ali and Ryan Shea.

Using Bitcoin's security and Stacks tokens (STX) to implement smart contracts. In the early days, we focused on DApps development and provided a decentralized experience combined with Bitcoin's security. With Bitcoin congestion and high fees, Stacks began to study the use of Bitcoin's second-layer technology (such as the Lightning Network) to expand network throughput and transaction speed, and launched Stacks 2.0 to achieve high-throughput, low-cost and instant settlement transactions.

You can compare it to Ethereum's ARB. RIF and STX both use the security and decentralization of BTC to expand BTC on this basis. At present, the ecological construction of STX is better than that of RIF, but there are only about 20 of them, which is far worse than the construction of Ethereum's second layer. Before Ordinals came out, Bitcoin's second layer has been questioned, and people believed that Bitcoin should just play the role of digital gold. At present, Bitcoin's second layer has been gradually accepted by people.

I have always believed that Bitcoin will usher in a new era. From an investment perspective, I prefer RIF because of its small market value. STX is stronger than RIF in terms of technology and ecology. I hope that we can witness the new era of Bitcoin together in the next bull market. In addition, you can also pay attention to the related tokens of STX and RIF ecology, such as ALEX, DIKO, and SOV;

Will the LTC production reduction narrative continue to be hyped?

After reviewing LTC, I believe that this wave of production cuts has come to an end. Regardless of the overall market, shorting the LTC exchange rate is the most stable strategy for the next period of time. I share some of my logic, which does not constitute investment advice:

Every halving of BTC will bring about a big bull market in the cryptocurrency circle. This is supported by the value attributes and consensus of BTC as fundamentals. However, every halving of LTC ends the one-sided market a few months before the halving. Why?

This shows that LTC has no intrinsic value, because the real positive effect of halving that affects the supply and demand relationship should really ferment after the halving, but LTC does not. What it has is just creating emotions and hyping expectations. There are only short-term speculative opportunities and no long-term investment value. In the long run, the exchange rate of the so-called Silver Lite has been falling.

For similar speculative opportunities, you can refer to CHZ during the World Cup period. The market started to be hyped up three or four months before the World Cup, and peaked when the World Cup officially started. Another example is the LSD track, LDO and SSV on the eve of Shanghai's upgrade, but LSD is different here. LSD has the attribute of long-term investment, but the price since the Shanghai upgrade is more of speculation expectations and emotions, and the long-term investment attribute will not push the price to the current level. There are many similar targets, and I will not cite them one by one.

To avoid misunderstanding, a bearish $LTC exchange rate, i.e. LTC/BTC, is not an investment advice to short LTC.

Market reaction after Sui went online:

As soon as Sui is launched, hot money will quickly transfer under the premise of stock game, so those so-called hot spots (LSD, artificial intelligence, new coins, etc.) will be drained. Sui, ARB, APT and other coins have good fundamentals at present, but I feel that the price is not sexy enough. This price is really not expensive or cheap. The whole environment is neither bullish nor bearish, which is actually very difficult to do.

To be honest, for most people, a decline is the only chance to turn things around. If it goes up directly, it is really impossible to operate. If the total market value of good projects here falls below 30-50 billion, the total market value at the peak of the bull market can reach 500 billion, which is 10 times the bottom. If the market value reaches 500 billion with half of the circulation, it will be 20 times the bottom. Only then can we see a little cost-effectiveness and space.