大丽7613

The situation in the Middle East is spiraling out of control. Will crypto and U.S. stocks plunge tomorrow? Here are my thoughts.

Following the U.S.-Iran conflict, fighting has flared up again between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. A Saudi airport was attacked, leaving 12 people dead and 309 injured, with many civilians affected. The biggest risk remains oil prices.
The Strait of Hormuz is blocked, and Saudi Arabia relies on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for its oil exports—but that area is controlled by the Houthis. An escalation in the conflict adds huge uncertainty to the market rebound.

My advice for next week is to be cautious. It’s not that crypto is weak; there are simply too many short-term headwinds: interest rate hikes, the U.S.-Iran dispute, U.S. debt issues, and now the fighting in Saudi Arabia. All we can do is hope for signs of de-escalation on Monday.

But from another perspective, despite all these negative factors, U.S. stocks have held steady, and BTC’s pullback has been relatively modest. That’s a sign of strength. We should stay patient and lie low. Once tensions ease or positive news comes through, a new market rally will begin.

Brother Yinghong says he got up.

Crypto markets fall again! Middle East conflict escalates—can you buy the dip this time?
✅ Reasons for the drop: Fighting has reignited in the Middle East. Houthi attacks hit Saudi airports and refineries, and there is a risk of the situation spreading, causing a broad sell-off across global assets.

✅ Core view: The long-term bull market trend remains unchanged. BTC could reach 150k–200k over the next two years. The short-term decline is just an episode brought by a black swan. After the conflict, it will most likely move toward a ceasefire and negotiations, at which point the market will rebound.

✅ Trading approach:
Control risk—use only spot positions or low leverage (2x), and build in gradually. Do not go all-in with high leverage.
BTC support levels are 82,500 and 80,000. Pre-judge these levels one month in advance. You already entered with 82,500 earlier; you can buy back at 82,500 now. But you should also be prepared for a further dip to the second support at 80,000. War-driven market conditions have many variables—be patient and wait for support before taking action. Build spot positions in batches

The trigger behind Bitcoin’s plunge is coming to light! Is it time to buy the dip?

1. Cause of the drop: On-chain data shows that early this morning, a U.S. government wallet transferred Bitcoin worth hundreds of millions of dollars to an exchange, sparking panic selling in the market. The wallet still holds crypto assets worth 27.4 billion.
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2. This is an unexpected bearish development. It’s speculated that the transfer was part of the disposal of seized assets following a court ruling in the case, and doesn’t necessarily mean the government will continue selling off its remaining holdings. However, the transfer breaks the campaign promise that the government would not sell Bitcoin.
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3. Market outlook: BTC met resistance on its push toward 87,000 and pulled back to 83,000—a normal correction. Consider entering in staggered buys with a small position. If it falls below 82,500, the next support level is around 80,000. For Ethereum, watch the second support level near 2,540. $BTC

Bitcoin is challenging the previous high of 87,000 again. Is a new uptrend on the way?

✅ BTC is like a battering ram, probing higher whenever it gets the chance. It’s retesting the peak for the second time in three days, and has made four attempts to break through the major resistance at 87,000 in the past two weeks. Will it finally break through this time?

⚠️ Caution is warranted: the first effort is strong, the second weaker, and the third weaker still. Repeated attempts to break through will keep depleting buying pressure. A prolonged failure to break higher suggests that investors are selling at these levels, and the market is likely to enter an extended period of consolidation.

📈 But this is just a bump along the way up. The long-term trend remains unchanged: 87,000 will eventually be broken, with subsequent targets at 100,000, 120,000, 150,000, and even 200,000. The expected returns from a long-term position remain the same, so even if the breakout takes another two months, that’s fine.

📌 Looking back at the last three bull-bear cycles—2014–2017, 2018–2021, and 2022–2025—the bull market has typically taken about three years to rise from the bottom to the peak. This bull market only began three months ago, so there’s still plenty of room to run. A reasonable expectation: choppy gains to 100,000–110,000 next year, with 160,000 in sight the year after.

I’ve set a reminder for the top female streamer’s livestream at 8:00 tonight.

What is Binance quietly up to again? Anyway, it’s beneficial for BNB.
If there’s a spot pullback, buy BNB in batches.

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PCE inflation major positive catalyst delivered! Data at 3%, which is 0.3% lower than the expected 3.3%!

But here’s a question: August saw a big jump in oil prices, so inflation would have been hard to bring down. Trump had already anticipated it and directly adjusted the PCE calculation methodology!

As shown in the chart, the new PCE algorithm takes effect today. The prior figure of 3.3% was revised to 3%, and the overestimated components were adjusted directly.

Putting the controversy aside, the market moved ahead of the news—BTC is rising on this positive development.

SOL’s strength really exceeded expectations❗
Compared with a whole lineup of mainstream coins, Bitcoin saw a clear pullback from the prior high, but SOL has broken through its previous high again, rallying to stand above $125—and even BTC’s pullback can’t hold it back.

Many people ask: with such a strong run, is SOL possibly topping out?
From the chart, there is strong short-term resistance at $130 that needs close attention.
But the long-term perspective is completely different: SOL initially crashed down from $300, and even now its rebound still hasn’t reached half of the previous high. Even at double the current price, it would be around $260, so there’s still plenty of upside. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is only about 50% away from its previous high, so it’s obvious how to choose when accumulating coins on dips.

Although the short-term gain has been huge, long term I continue to remain bullish on SOL

What’s going on with Sol—why hasn’t it dropped and has instead made new highs?

The project team suddenly announced good news: it launched the Alpenglow testnet, which will significantly improve the Sol network’s speed. The transaction finality time has been compressed from about 12.8 seconds to about 150 milliseconds!