It started with a discussion about cryptocurrency trading, and many people answered 50%

Is it like us opening futures orders on the exchange every day and guessing whether the currency price will rise or fall?

Some people also calculate it according to probability and treat it as a probability problem.

None of this matters, because everyone has fundamentally different understandings of how the world works.

Let me first talk about my point of view

Since the concept of historical accuracy has appeared in the question, it means that A and B have different levels of grasp of information.

That is, B may have a certain information advantage, while A may be interfered with or even induced by information for a long time (banker vs. leeks?)

Then to a certain extent, Party B has mastered most of the information about this market and can therefore make relatively correct judgments.

The question does not say whether the probability of the coin landing on heads or tails is equal.

Is it true that the BTC and ETH markets really rise and fall in half every day?

The answer is not important. What is important is what you think is your logic, what is the logic of the market, and what are axioms.

As more people buy coins and more funds are used to buy them, the value of assets will definitely rise. This is an axiom.

If more people are calling for a bearish coin and fewer are calling for a bullish coin, will the asset definitely fall? Do you remember how many people were forced to short the housing market in 2015?

There are more people who are bullish and fewer who are bearish. Will assets definitely rise? Remember the guy who quit his job to trade stocks and got liquidated in 2015? Even a taxi driver can talk to you about stocks. Aren't you afraid?

What happens when no one can call short or long? Everyone has the answer in their heart.